Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead in NY-21, a district rated R+10 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, driving trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a GOP victory over Democratic challenger Alan Ferguson. Recent polls, including a September Siena survey showing Stefanik ahead 55-37%, reinforce her incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($4M+ cash-on-hand), and endorsements from former President Trump amid national Republican momentum in House battlegrounds. No major shifts in the past week, with early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election; Ferguson's path requires turnout surges in swing areas like the North Country, but historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats by wide margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNY-21 Wahlsieger
NY-21 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
75%
Demokratische Partei
21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
75%
Demokratische Partei
$3,720 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead in NY-21, a district rated R+10 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, driving trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a GOP victory over Democratic challenger Alan Ferguson. Recent polls, including a September Siena survey showing Stefanik ahead 55-37%, reinforce her incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($4M+ cash-on-hand), and endorsements from former President Trump amid national Republican momentum in House battlegrounds. No major shifts in the past week, with early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election; Ferguson's path requires turnout surges in swing areas like the North Country, but historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats by wide margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$3,720Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead in NY-21, a district rated R+10 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, driving trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a GOP victory over Democratic challenger Alan Ferguson. Recent polls, including a September Siena survey showing Stefanik ahead 55-37%, reinforce her incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($4M+ cash-on-hand), and endorsements from former President Trump amid national Republican momentum in House battlegrounds. No major shifts in the past week, with early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election; Ferguson's path requires turnout surges in swing areas like the North Country, but historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats by wide margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$3,720Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead in NY-21, a district rated R+10 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, driving trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a GOP victory over Democratic challenger Alan Ferguson. Recent polls, including a September Siena survey showing Stefanik ahead 55-37%, reinforce her incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($4M+ cash-on-hand), and endorsements from former President Trump amid national Republican momentum in House battlegrounds. No major shifts in the past week, with early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election; Ferguson's path requires turnout surges in swing areas like the North Country, but historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats by wide margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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