**Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' strong position in solidly Republican KS-04 drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 86.5% implied probability to retain the House seat in November 2026.** Estes, who filed for re-election on January 27, benefits from the district's R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit victories, including his 2024 win amid a Trump landslide locally. Democrat Katy Tyndell announced her candidacy on March 5, marking the first notable Democratic challenger, yet early fundraising edges to Estes and forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican with assured re-election. Absent competitive polling or national wave dynamics, odds reflect low upset risk ahead of August 4 primaries, though scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKS-04 Wahlsieger
KS-04 Wahlsieger
$12,883 Vol.
$12,883 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
87%
Demokratische Partei
13%
$12,883 Vol.
$12,883 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$12,883 Vol.
87%
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' strong position in solidly Republican KS-04 drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 86.5% implied probability to retain the House seat in November 2026.** Estes, who filed for re-election on January 27, benefits from the district's R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit victories, including his 2024 win amid a Trump landslide locally. Democrat Katy Tyndell announced her candidacy on March 5, marking the first notable Democratic challenger, yet early fundraising edges to Estes and forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican with assured re-election. Absent competitive polling or national wave dynamics, odds reflect low upset risk ahead of August 4 primaries, though scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$12,883Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' strong position in solidly Republican KS-04 drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 86.5% implied probability to retain the House seat in November 2026.** Estes, who filed for re-election on January 27, benefits from the district's R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit victories, including his 2024 win amid a Trump landslide locally. Democrat Katy Tyndell announced her candidacy on March 5, marking the first notable Democratic challenger, yet early fundraising edges to Estes and forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican with assured re-election. Absent competitive polling or national wave dynamics, odds reflect low upset risk ahead of August 4 primaries, though scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$12,883Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' strong position in solidly Republican KS-04 drives trader consensus favoring the GOP at 86.5% implied probability to retain the House seat in November 2026.** Estes, who filed for re-election on January 27, benefits from the district's R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of double-digit victories, including his 2024 win amid a Trump landslide locally. Democrat Katy Tyndell announced her candidacy on March 5, marking the first notable Democratic challenger, yet early fundraising edges to Estes and forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican with assured re-election. Absent competitive polling or national wave dynamics, odds reflect low upset risk ahead of August 4 primaries, though scandals or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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