Trader consensus in the NY-10 Democratic primary heavily favors former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander at 76% implied probability to unseat incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman, driven by a Supreme Court ruling on March 3 preserving district lines and enabling their June 23 showdown. Lander's recent launch criticizing Goldman's $1.7 million in career pro-Israel PAC donations, including $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle, has intensified scrutiny, culminating in Lander's March 23 "People’s Pledge" challenge to ban dark money. Goldman counters with endorsements like the Independent Neighborhood Democrats and a $1.8 million cash advantage, but progressive momentum in this D+32 district positions Lander ahead amid Israel-Gaza divides. Lower-tier candidates like Yuh-Line Niou trail due to the two-way contest dynamic; petition filing nears April 6.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBrad Lander 76%
Dan Goldman 19%
Yuh-Line Niou 3.8%
Cameron Kasky 3.7%
Brad Lander
76%
Dan Goldman
19%
Yuh-Line Niou
4%
Cameron Kasky
4%
Alexa Avilés
2%
Brad Lander 76%
Dan Goldman 19%
Yuh-Line Niou 3.8%
Cameron Kasky 3.7%
Brad Lander
76%
Dan Goldman
19%
Yuh-Line Niou
4%
Cameron Kasky
4%
Alexa Avilés
2%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the NY-10 Democratic primary heavily favors former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander at 76% implied probability to unseat incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman, driven by a Supreme Court ruling on March 3 preserving district lines and enabling their June 23 showdown. Lander's recent launch criticizing Goldman's $1.7 million in career pro-Israel PAC donations, including $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle, has intensified scrutiny, culminating in Lander's March 23 "People’s Pledge" challenge to ban dark money. Goldman counters with endorsements like the Independent Neighborhood Democrats and a $1.8 million cash advantage, but progressive momentum in this D+32 district positions Lander ahead amid Israel-Gaza divides. Lower-tier candidates like Yuh-Line Niou trail due to the two-way contest dynamic; petition filing nears April 6.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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