Market icon

Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Market icon

Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 60%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 16%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.8%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 4.3%

Polymarket

$3,379,672 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 60%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 16%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.8%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 4.3%

Polymarket

$3,379,672 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident

$30,189 Vol.

60%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba

$20,944 Vol.

16%

Starmer – UK Premierminister

$561,520 Vol.

5%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister

$1,013,684 Vol.

4%

Trump - Präsident der USA

$215,933 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin

$355,003 Vol.

2%

Putin - Präsident Russlands

$355,128 Vol.

2%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien

$16,004 Vol.

2%

Macron - Präsident Frankreichs

$73,879 Vol.

1%

Keiner vor 2027

$17,236 Vol.

1%

Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine

$17,394 Vol.

1%

Abbas – Präsident von Palästina

$63,961 Vol.

1%

Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh

$42,247 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister

$58,402 Vol.

1%

Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister

$14,105 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien

$43,149 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien

$31,300 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin

$27,360 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei

$78,302 Vol.

<1%

Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea

$27,222 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australiens Premierminister

$61,467 Vol.

<1%

Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien

$117,624 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Präsident von Argentinien

$39,947 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler

$31,058 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko

$66,615 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 60%, driven by opposition Tisza party leading recent polls ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, where unified challengers have eroded Fidesz's long-held dominance amid economic discontent and EU tensions. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% following Trump administration demands last week for his removal as a precondition for bilateral talks, amid Cuba's ongoing crisis though Havana firmly rejected negotiations over his term ending in 2028. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.8% reflects fresh no-confidence pressures from Labour rebels and Tory overtures amid scandals, while Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 4.3% faces coalition strains and budget battles to avert snap elections despite lagging polls. Lower odds on others like Trump signal scant near-term removal risks via impeachment or resignation.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,379,672
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 60%, driven by opposition Tisza party leading recent polls ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, where unified challengers have eroded Fidesz's long-held dominance amid economic discontent and EU tensions. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% following Trump administration demands last week for his removal as a precondition for bilateral talks, amid Cuba's ongoing crisis though Havana firmly rejected negotiations over his term ending in 2028. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.8% reflects fresh no-confidence pressures from Labour rebels and Tory overtures amid scandals, while Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 4.3% faces coalition strains and budget battles to avert snap elections despite lagging polls. Lower odds on others like Trump signal scant near-term removal risks via impeachment or resignation.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,379,672
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 25 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 60%, gefolgt von „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 16%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 60¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 60% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $3.4 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 3, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 25 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 60%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 60% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 16%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.