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Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Market icon

Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 63%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 12%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien 3.6%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,521,011 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 63%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 12%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien 3.6%

Starmer – UK Premierminister 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,521,011 Vol.

Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident

$32,992 Vol.

63%

Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba

$23,045 Vol.

12%

Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien

$18,218 Vol.

4%

Starmer – UK Premierminister

$563,272 Vol.

3%

Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister

$1,015,701 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin

$356,446 Vol.

2%

Trump - Präsident der USA

$217,325 Vol.

2%

Putin - Präsident Russlands

$359,078 Vol.

2%

Keiner vor 2027

$21,675 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko

$70,933 Vol.

1%

Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine

$19,688 Vol.

1%

Macron - Präsident Frankreichs

$74,810 Vol.

1%

Abbas – Präsident von Palästina

$88,736 Vol.

1%

Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh

$45,946 Vol.

1%

Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister

$23,331 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister

$71,617 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien

$74,531 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin

$28,607 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien

$45,999 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Präsident von Argentinien

$42,765 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler

$33,513 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei

$80,693 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australiens Premierminister

$63,898 Vol.

<1%

Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien

$120,423 Vol.

<1%

Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea

$27,768 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price Viktor Orbán as the overwhelming favorite at 62.5% to exit as Hungary's prime minister before 2027, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition challengers ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—potentially ending his 16-year rule amid voter anger over corruption scandals, EU fund disputes, and Ukraine policy vetoes. Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 11.5% following mid-March reports of U.S. demands for his resignation as a precondition for bilateral negotiations and economic reforms, though Cuban officials have rejected this outright. Lower odds on figures like Gustavo Petro (3.6%), Keir Starmer (3.2%), and Benjamin Netanyahu (3.1%) reflect less imminent catalysts, such as Colombia's scheduled 2026 term end, UK political stability, and Israel's ongoing coalition tensions, underscoring trader consensus on Hungary's near-term electoral risk as the primary driver.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,521,011
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price Viktor Orbán as the overwhelming favorite at 62.5% to exit as Hungary's prime minister before 2027, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition challengers ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—potentially ending his 16-year rule amid voter anger over corruption scandals, EU fund disputes, and Ukraine policy vetoes. Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 11.5% following mid-March reports of U.S. demands for his resignation as a precondition for bilateral negotiations and economic reforms, though Cuban officials have rejected this outright. Lower odds on figures like Gustavo Petro (3.6%), Keir Starmer (3.2%), and Benjamin Netanyahu (3.1%) reflect less imminent catalysts, such as Colombia's scheduled 2026 term end, UK political stability, and Israel's ongoing coalition tensions, underscoring trader consensus on Hungary's near-term electoral risk as the primary driver.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,521,011
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 25 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 63%, gefolgt von „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 12%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 63¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 63% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $3.5 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 3, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 25 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" ist „Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident" mit 63%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 63% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba" mit 12%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.