Recent municipal elections on March 15-22 underscored a tight race for France's 2027 presidential election, with Horizons leader Édouard Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor elevating him as the primary center-right challenger to National Rally's Jordan Bardella, who leads first-round polls at 35-36% per Elabe and Harris surveys. RN's underwhelming local performance—no major city wins—has capped Bardella's momentum despite his edge, while left fragmentation (Mélenchon at 8-13%, Glucksmann rising) and Marine Le Pen's low viability post-disqualification keep the field open. Trader consensus mirrors this duopoly amid runoff uncertainties, where Philippe often polls competitively. Dynamics hinge on mainstream voter consolidation; separation may come from Les Républicains' primary vote, left infighting resolutions, or economic policy announcements before April 2027's first round.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Nächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 22%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$22,243,965 Vol.
$22,243,965 Vol.
Jordan Bardella
25%
Édouard Philippe
22%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
5%
Bruno Retailleau
4%
Sarah Knafo
3%
François Hollande
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Valérie Pécresse
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 22%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$22,243,965 Vol.
$22,243,965 Vol.
Jordan Bardella
25%
Édouard Philippe
22%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
5%
Bruno Retailleau
4%
Sarah Knafo
3%
François Hollande
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Valérie Pécresse
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent municipal elections on March 15-22 underscored a tight race for France's 2027 presidential election, with Horizons leader Édouard Philippe's strong reelection as Le Havre mayor elevating him as the primary center-right challenger to National Rally's Jordan Bardella, who leads first-round polls at 35-36% per Elabe and Harris surveys. RN's underwhelming local performance—no major city wins—has capped Bardella's momentum despite his edge, while left fragmentation (Mélenchon at 8-13%, Glucksmann rising) and Marine Le Pen's low viability post-disqualification keep the field open. Trader consensus mirrors this duopoly amid runoff uncertainties, where Philippe often polls competitively. Dynamics hinge on mainstream voter consolidation; separation may come from Les Républicains' primary vote, left infighting resolutions, or economic policy announcements before April 2027's first round.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen