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icon for Die NATO löst sich vor 2027 auf?
Geopolitik·NATO

Die NATO löst sich vor 2027 auf?

icon for Die NATO löst sich vor 2027 auf?
Geopolitik·NATO

Die NATO löst sich vor 2027 auf?

Ja

2% Chance
Polymarket

$123,904 Vol.

Ja

2% Chance
Polymarket

$123,904 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional structure, requiring either withdrawal by more than half its 32 members or unanimous treaty repeal, sets a high bar for dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent developments reinforce continuity, including the July 2026 Ankara summit reaffirmation of Article 5 commitments, European allies' record defense spending increases, and Germany's expanded eastern flank role with a permanent brigade in Lithuania. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has highlighted ongoing adaptation through "NATO 3.0," emphasizing greater European and Canadian responsibility alongside solidarity responses to hybrid incidents like the September 2026 Leipzig airport event. No member state has issued withdrawal notices, and discussions focus on burden-sharing adjustments and Ukraine support rather than exits. While U.S. force posture reviews or election outcomes in key allies could introduce friction, the compressed timeline and absence of coordinated action sustain trader consensus on continuity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.

3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$123,904
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional structure, requiring either withdrawal by more than half its 32 members or unanimous treaty repeal, sets a high bar for dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent developments reinforce continuity, including the July 2026 Ankara summit reaffirmation of Article 5 commitments, European allies' record defense spending increases, and Germany's expanded eastern flank role with a permanent brigade in Lithuania. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has highlighted ongoing adaptation through "NATO 3.0," emphasizing greater European and Canadian responsibility alongside solidarity responses to hybrid incidents like the September 2026 Leipzig airport event. No member state has issued withdrawal notices, and discussions focus on burden-sharing adjustments and Ukraine support rather than exits. While U.S. force posture reviews or election outcomes in key allies could introduce friction, the compressed timeline and absence of coordinated action sustain trader consensus on continuity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.

3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$123,904
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

icon for Wird ein Land bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 die NATO verlassen?

Wird ein Land bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 die NATO verlassen?

2%
Ja
icon for Wird die USA vor 2027 aus der NATO austreten?

Wird die USA vor 2027 aus der NATO austreten?

2%
Ja
icon for Zerfällt die EU vor 2027?

Zerfällt die EU vor 2027?

1%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Die NATO löst sich vor 2027 auf?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Löst sich die NATO vor 2027 auf?" mit 2%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 2¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 2% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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