Maryland’s 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader consensus pricing the party at 93.5 percent to capture the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, who won the open seat in 2024 with 59 percent, faces a primary on June 23 against several challengers, yet the district’s partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles limit Republican prospects. The Republican primary field remains fragmented with limited fundraising visibility. A Democratic nominee is expected to prevail comfortably in the general election absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national political realignment that substantially alters turnout patterns in this D+12 territory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMD-03 Wahlsieger
MD-03 Wahlsieger
$26,066 Vol.
$26,066 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$26,066 Vol.
$26,066 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$19,244 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$6,822 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader consensus pricing the party at 93.5 percent to capture the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, who won the open seat in 2024 with 59 percent, faces a primary on June 23 against several challengers, yet the district’s partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles limit Republican prospects. The Republican primary field remains fragmented with limited fundraising visibility. A Democratic nominee is expected to prevail comfortably in the general election absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national political realignment that substantially alters turnout patterns in this D+12 territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$26,066Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader consensus pricing the party at 93.5 percent to capture the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, who won the open seat in 2024 with 59 percent, faces a primary on June 23 against several challengers, yet the district’s partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles limit Republican prospects. The Republican primary field remains fragmented with limited fundraising visibility. A Democratic nominee is expected to prevail comfortably in the general election absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national political realignment that substantially alters turnout patterns in this D+12 territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,066Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader consensus pricing the party at 93.5 percent to capture the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, who won the open seat in 2024 with 59 percent, faces a primary on June 23 against several challengers, yet the district’s partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles limit Republican prospects. The Republican primary field remains fragmented with limited fundraising visibility. A Democratic nominee is expected to prevail comfortably in the general election absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national political realignment that substantially alters turnout patterns in this D+12 territory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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