Polymarket traders price a 99% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting strong consensus around nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's, which project headline CPI YoY near 3.25% as of early April, up sharply from February's actual 2.4% print released March 11. This positioning stems from anticipated robust March month-over-month gains—nowcast at 0.84%—fueled by persistent shelter costs, energy price surges from recent geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, and base effects amplifying the annual rate despite recent cooling. FOMC March projections also signal upward revisions to 2026 inflation medians near 2.7% PCE. Upside consensus holds barring softer-than-expected March data ahead of the April 10 BLS release, such as subdued energy or services pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert≥2,8 % 99.0%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$3,075,344 Vol.
$3,075,344 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
99%
≥2,8 % 99.0%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$3,075,344 Vol.
$3,075,344 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 99% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting strong consensus around nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's, which project headline CPI YoY near 3.25% as of early April, up sharply from February's actual 2.4% print released March 11. This positioning stems from anticipated robust March month-over-month gains—nowcast at 0.84%—fueled by persistent shelter costs, energy price surges from recent geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, and base effects amplifying the annual rate despite recent cooling. FOMC March projections also signal upward revisions to 2026 inflation medians near 2.7% PCE. Upside consensus holds barring softer-than-expected March data ahead of the April 10 BLS release, such as subdued energy or services pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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