Polymarket traders price a 98.4% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI at ≥2.8%, reflecting consensus around elevated headline nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed (0.84% month-over-month as of March 31) and Bloomberg trackers (0.96%), far above street estimates near 0.3%. This surge stems from recent energy price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and referenced "Putin's price hike," pushing consumer inflation expectations to 5.2%—the highest since March 2023 per University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys. February's steady 2.4% year-over-year reading provides base effects favoring upside, with sticky core PCE forecasts revised to 2.7% post-FOMC. A cooler-than-expected print on April 10 could challenge this if energy costs abate or base effects underperform, though tail risks for softer outcomes remain minimal amid hawkish Fed signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert≥2,8 % 98.4%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$2,953,386 Vol.
$2,953,386 Vol.
≤2,0 %
1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
98%
≥2,8 % 98.4%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$2,953,386 Vol.
$2,953,386 Vol.
≤2,0 %
1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 98.4% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI at ≥2.8%, reflecting consensus around elevated headline nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed (0.84% month-over-month as of March 31) and Bloomberg trackers (0.96%), far above street estimates near 0.3%. This surge stems from recent energy price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and referenced "Putin's price hike," pushing consumer inflation expectations to 5.2%—the highest since March 2023 per University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys. February's steady 2.4% year-over-year reading provides base effects favoring upside, with sticky core PCE forecasts revised to 2.7% post-FOMC. A cooler-than-expected print on April 10 could challenge this if energy costs abate or base effects underperform, though tail risks for softer outcomes remain minimal amid hawkish Fed signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen