Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between ≥3.4% (45.5%) and 3.3% (36.0%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year, driven by a sharp reversal in energy prices from tailwind to headwind amid Iran-related geopolitical disruptions. Gasoline prices surged from around $3 per gallon in February to $3.80, poised to add ~0.8 percentage points to headline CPI monthly change, per Bloomberg nowcasts implying 3.4% YoY—up from February's steady 2.4%. Offsetting pressures include softer hotel costs and food inflation, while sticky core goods like computers add upside risk. March FOMC raised 2026 PCE inflation median to 2.7%, signaling trader caution on disinflation. Resolution looms April 10; sustained oil shocks above $105/barrel WTI could tip odds higher.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert≥3,4 % 45.4%
3,3 % 36.0%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 3.1%
$851,215 Vol.
$851,215 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
<1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
1%
3,1 %
3%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
36%
≥3,4 %
45%
≥3,4 % 45.4%
3,3 % 36.0%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 3.1%
$851,215 Vol.
$851,215 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
<1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
1%
3,1 %
3%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
36%
≥3,4 %
45%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between ≥3.4% (45.5%) and 3.3% (36.0%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year, driven by a sharp reversal in energy prices from tailwind to headwind amid Iran-related geopolitical disruptions. Gasoline prices surged from around $3 per gallon in February to $3.80, poised to add ~0.8 percentage points to headline CPI monthly change, per Bloomberg nowcasts implying 3.4% YoY—up from February's steady 2.4%. Offsetting pressures include softer hotel costs and food inflation, while sticky core goods like computers add upside risk. March FOMC raised 2026 PCE inflation median to 2.7%, signaling trader caution on disinflation. Resolution looms April 10; sustained oil shocks above $105/barrel WTI could tip odds higher.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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