Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like JRA-55 indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to +0.40°C versus the 1991-2020 reference—positioning the 1.25–1.29°C outcome as the market-implied consensus with 58.3% probability among traders wagering real capital. This reflects a persistent anthropogenic warming trend under neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions, boosted by exceptional North American heat (e.g., +4.9°C U.S. highs, record anomalies in the Southwest) offsetting cooler pockets in Alaska and Scandinavia. Historical March precedents, like 2025's near-record warmth, provide context amid model uncertainties. Official confirmations from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth bulletins, due mid-April, may adjust these skin-in-the-game odds as observations finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMärz 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
März 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
1,25–1,29ºC 58.3%
>1,29ºC 24.6%
1,20–1,24ºC 16%
1,15–1,19ºC 1.8%
$231,335 Vol.
$231,335 Vol.
10. Apr. 2026
<1,10ºC
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
2%
1,20–1,24ºC
16%
1,25–1,29ºC
58%
>1,29ºC
25%
1,25–1,29ºC 58.3%
>1,29ºC 24.6%
1,20–1,24ºC 16%
1,15–1,19ºC 1.8%
$231,335 Vol.
$231,335 Vol.
10. Apr. 2026
<1,10ºC
$29,527 Vol.
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$33,779 Vol.
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$54,345 Vol.
2%
1,20–1,24ºC
$40,112 Vol.
16%
1,25–1,29ºC
$27,056 Vol.
58%
>1,29ºC
$46,516 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like JRA-55 indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to +0.40°C versus the 1991-2020 reference—positioning the 1.25–1.29°C outcome as the market-implied consensus with 58.3% probability among traders wagering real capital. This reflects a persistent anthropogenic warming trend under neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions, boosted by exceptional North American heat (e.g., +4.9°C U.S. highs, record anomalies in the Southwest) offsetting cooler pockets in Alaska and Scandinavia. Historical March precedents, like 2025's near-record warmth, provide context amid model uncertainties. Official confirmations from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth bulletins, due mid-April, may adjust these skin-in-the-game odds as observations finalize.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$231,335Enddatum
10. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like JRA-55 indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to +0.40°C versus the 1991-2020 reference—positioning the 1.25–1.29°C outcome as the market-implied consensus with 58.3% probability among traders wagering real capital. This reflects a persistent anthropogenic warming trend under neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions, boosted by exceptional North American heat (e.g., +4.9°C U.S. highs, record anomalies in the Southwest) offsetting cooler pockets in Alaska and Scandinavia. Historical March precedents, like 2025's near-record warmth, provide context amid model uncertainties. Official confirmations from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth bulletins, due mid-April, may adjust these skin-in-the-game odds as observations finalize.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$231,335Enddatum
10. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary reanalysis data from sources like JRA-55 indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to +0.40°C versus the 1991-2020 reference—positioning the 1.25–1.29°C outcome as the market-implied consensus with 58.3% probability among traders wagering real capital. This reflects a persistent anthropogenic warming trend under neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions, boosted by exceptional North American heat (e.g., +4.9°C U.S. highs, record anomalies in the Southwest) offsetting cooler pockets in Alaska and Scandinavia. Historical March precedents, like 2025's near-record warmth, provide context amid model uncertainties. Official confirmations from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth bulletins, due mid-April, may adjust these skin-in-the-game odds as observations finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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