NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, underpinning the market's 92.8% implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detect most NEOs larger than 140 meters, eliminating known threats, while 100kt airbursts from ~10-meter bolides occur roughly once every 10–20 years based on historical CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and only minor fireballs under 1kt this year reinforce this consensus. Realistic challenges include an undetected small meteoroid producing such energy, though baseline rates and enhanced satellite monitoring limit this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new detections.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, underpinning the market's 92.8% implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detect most NEOs larger than 140 meters, eliminating known threats, while 100kt airbursts from ~10-meter bolides occur roughly once every 10–20 years based on historical CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and only minor fireballs under 1kt this year reinforce this consensus. Realistic challenges include an undetected small meteoroid producing such energy, though baseline rates and enhanced satellite monitoring limit this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$6,285Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, underpinning the market's 92.8% implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detect most NEOs larger than 140 meters, eliminating known threats, while 100kt airbursts from ~10-meter bolides occur roughly once every 10–20 years based on historical CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and only minor fireballs under 1kt this year reinforce this consensus. Realistic challenges include an undetected small meteoroid producing such energy, though baseline rates and enhanced satellite monitoring limit this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$6,285Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, underpinning the market's 92.8% implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detect most NEOs larger than 140 meters, eliminating known threats, while 100kt airbursts from ~10-meter bolides occur roughly once every 10–20 years based on historical CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe flybys, such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, and only minor fireballs under 1kt this year reinforce this consensus. Realistic challenges include an undetected small meteoroid producing such energy, though baseline rates and enhanced satellite monitoring limit this risk; watch CNEOS updates for new detections.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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