Current astronomical monitoring by NASA and partner agencies shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton impact energy during 2026, driving the market's 93% implied probability on "No." Detection surveys have reached high completeness for objects large enough to produce this yield, comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst, while smaller undetected bodies follow low statistical rates of roughly one event per several decades globally. Model projections and orbital data confirm no near-term collisions, though residual uncertainty persists for very faint objects. Refined observations through the remainder of the year could further reduce that margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current astronomical monitoring by NASA and partner agencies shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton impact energy during 2026, driving the market's 93% implied probability on "No." Detection surveys have reached high completeness for objects large enough to produce this yield, comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst, while smaller undetected bodies follow low statistical rates of roughly one event per several decades globally. Model projections and orbital data confirm no near-term collisions, though residual uncertainty persists for very faint objects. Refined observations through the remainder of the year could further reduce that margin.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$7,626Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current astronomical monitoring by NASA and partner agencies shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton impact energy during 2026, driving the market's 93% implied probability on "No." Detection surveys have reached high completeness for objects large enough to produce this yield, comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst, while smaller undetected bodies follow low statistical rates of roughly one event per several decades globally. Model projections and orbital data confirm no near-term collisions, though residual uncertainty persists for very faint objects. Refined observations through the remainder of the year could further reduce that margin.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$7,626Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current astronomical monitoring by NASA and partner agencies shows no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton impact energy during 2026, driving the market's 93% implied probability on "No." Detection surveys have reached high completeness for objects large enough to produce this yield, comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst, while smaller undetected bodies follow low statistical rates of roughly one event per several decades globally. Model projections and orbital data confirm no near-term collisions, though residual uncertainty persists for very faint objects. Refined observations through the remainder of the year could further reduce that margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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