The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.8% stems from the extreme rarity of 100-kiloton meteor impacts, which occur far less than once per decade on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and other agencies showing no objects of sufficient size on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing surveys have identified and tracked the vast majority of potential impactors in this energy range, with none currently threatening Earth this year. While an undetected small asteroid could theoretically enter the atmosphere undetected until days before impact, historical detection rates and the limited remaining timeframe make such an event highly improbable under current observational capabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.8% stems from the extreme rarity of 100-kiloton meteor impacts, which occur far less than once per decade on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and other agencies showing no objects of sufficient size on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing surveys have identified and tracked the vast majority of potential impactors in this energy range, with none currently threatening Earth this year. While an undetected small asteroid could theoretically enter the atmosphere undetected until days before impact, historical detection rates and the limited remaining timeframe make such an event highly improbable under current observational capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$7,582Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.8% stems from the extreme rarity of 100-kiloton meteor impacts, which occur far less than once per decade on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and other agencies showing no objects of sufficient size on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing surveys have identified and tracked the vast majority of potential impactors in this energy range, with none currently threatening Earth this year. While an undetected small asteroid could theoretically enter the atmosphere undetected until days before impact, historical detection rates and the limited remaining timeframe make such an event highly improbable under current observational capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$7,582Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.8% stems from the extreme rarity of 100-kiloton meteor impacts, which occur far less than once per decade on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and other agencies showing no objects of sufficient size on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing surveys have identified and tracked the vast majority of potential impactors in this energy range, with none currently threatening Earth this year. While an undetected small asteroid could theoretically enter the atmosphere undetected until days before impact, historical detection rates and the limited remaining timeframe make such an event highly improbable under current observational capabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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