Trader consensus for large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 reflects historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing an average of about one per year globally, with years ranging from zero to three or more, driving the close split between 0 (38%) and 1 (42%) outcomes amid inherent stochasticity in magma ascent and eruption triggers. No notable surges in seismic unrest or deformation at key hotspots like the Aleutians, Kamchatka, or Indonesia have occurred in the past 30 days per USGS and GVP monitoring, maintaining baseline activity levels seen in recent years without elevated precursors. Differentiating factors include regional variability—Ring of Fire dominance—and unpredictable intensification from smaller events; ongoing monthly bulletins will track potential shifts, though forecasts beyond weeks remain highly uncertain.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWie viele große Vulkanausbrüche (vei ≥4) im Jahr 2026?
Wie viele große Vulkanausbrüche (vei ≥4) im Jahr 2026?
1 42%
0 38%
2 10.4%
3 4.7%
$619,942 Vol.
$619,942 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
42%
2
10%
3
5%
4
2%
5+
2%
1 42%
0 38%
2 10.4%
3 4.7%
$619,942 Vol.
$619,942 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$372,744 Vol.
38%
1
$235,590 Vol.
42%
2
$0 Vol.
10%
3
$0 Vol.
5%
4
$11,608 Vol.
2%
5+
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus for large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 reflects historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing an average of about one per year globally, with years ranging from zero to three or more, driving the close split between 0 (38%) and 1 (42%) outcomes amid inherent stochasticity in magma ascent and eruption triggers. No notable surges in seismic unrest or deformation at key hotspots like the Aleutians, Kamchatka, or Indonesia have occurred in the past 30 days per USGS and GVP monitoring, maintaining baseline activity levels seen in recent years without elevated precursors. Differentiating factors include regional variability—Ring of Fire dominance—and unpredictable intensification from smaller events; ongoing monthly bulletins will track potential shifts, though forecasts beyond weeks remain highly uncertain.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$619,942Enddatum
Mar 31, 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus for large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 reflects historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing an average of about one per year globally, with years ranging from zero to three or more, driving the close split between 0 (38%) and 1 (42%) outcomes amid inherent stochasticity in magma ascent and eruption triggers. No notable surges in seismic unrest or deformation at key hotspots like the Aleutians, Kamchatka, or Indonesia have occurred in the past 30 days per USGS and GVP monitoring, maintaining baseline activity levels seen in recent years without elevated precursors. Differentiating factors include regional variability—Ring of Fire dominance—and unpredictable intensification from smaller events; ongoing monthly bulletins will track potential shifts, though forecasts beyond weeks remain highly uncertain.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$619,942Enddatum
Mar 31, 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus for large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 reflects historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing an average of about one per year globally, with years ranging from zero to three or more, driving the close split between 0 (38%) and 1 (42%) outcomes amid inherent stochasticity in magma ascent and eruption triggers. No notable surges in seismic unrest or deformation at key hotspots like the Aleutians, Kamchatka, or Indonesia have occurred in the past 30 days per USGS and GVP monitoring, maintaining baseline activity levels seen in recent years without elevated precursors. Differentiating factors include regional variability—Ring of Fire dominance—and unpredictable intensification from smaller events; ongoing monthly bulletins will track potential shifts, though forecasts beyond weeks remain highly uncertain.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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