NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry impact monitoring system shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 that could release at least 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a roughly 20-30 meter stony asteroid airburst. This trader consensus at 94.8% for "No" reflects comprehensive sky surveys by Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, which recently cataloged thousands of NEOs without identifying 2026 threats—recent safe flybys like car-sized 2026 FM3 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March reinforce this. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO approaching from the sun's glare, as with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (0.5 megatons); new observations or the NEO Surveyor mission could further refine risks before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$102,120 Vol.
$102,120 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$102,120 Vol.
$102,120 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry impact monitoring system shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 that could release at least 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a roughly 20-30 meter stony asteroid airburst. This trader consensus at 94.8% for "No" reflects comprehensive sky surveys by Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, which recently cataloged thousands of NEOs without identifying 2026 threats—recent safe flybys like car-sized 2026 FM3 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March reinforce this. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO approaching from the sun's glare, as with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (0.5 megatons); new observations or the NEO Surveyor mission could further refine risks before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$102,120Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry impact monitoring system shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 that could release at least 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a roughly 20-30 meter stony asteroid airburst. This trader consensus at 94.8% for "No" reflects comprehensive sky surveys by Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, which recently cataloged thousands of NEOs without identifying 2026 threats—recent safe flybys like car-sized 2026 FM3 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March reinforce this. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO approaching from the sun's glare, as with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (0.5 megatons); new observations or the NEO Surveyor mission could further refine risks before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$102,120Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry impact monitoring system shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 that could release at least 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a roughly 20-30 meter stony asteroid airburst. This trader consensus at 94.8% for "No" reflects comprehensive sky surveys by Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data, which recently cataloged thousands of NEOs without identifying 2026 threats—recent safe flybys like car-sized 2026 FM3 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March reinforce this. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO approaching from the sun's glare, as with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (0.5 megatons); new observations or the NEO Surveyor mission could further refine risks before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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