NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risk for 2026, with the highest-probability tracked objects like 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ carrying cumulative odds below 0.004% and Torino Scale ratings of zero, reflecting comprehensive NEO surveys that detect nearly all threats capable of megaton-scale energy release. No confirmed bolides have exceeded 0.00025 megatons in the first quarter of 2026 despite a surge in smaller fireballs attributed to seasonal factors around the vernal equinox. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with historical flux models estimating such ~30-meter asteroid airbursts once per century. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare, sun-blinded undetected impactor, though ongoing CNEOS fireball monitoring and global infrasound networks minimize this uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$101,898 Vol.
$101,898 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$101,898 Vol.
$101,898 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risk for 2026, with the highest-probability tracked objects like 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ carrying cumulative odds below 0.004% and Torino Scale ratings of zero, reflecting comprehensive NEO surveys that detect nearly all threats capable of megaton-scale energy release. No confirmed bolides have exceeded 0.00025 megatons in the first quarter of 2026 despite a surge in smaller fireballs attributed to seasonal factors around the vernal equinox. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with historical flux models estimating such ~30-meter asteroid airbursts once per century. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare, sun-blinded undetected impactor, though ongoing CNEOS fireball monitoring and global infrasound networks minimize this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$101,898Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risk for 2026, with the highest-probability tracked objects like 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ carrying cumulative odds below 0.004% and Torino Scale ratings of zero, reflecting comprehensive NEO surveys that detect nearly all threats capable of megaton-scale energy release. No confirmed bolides have exceeded 0.00025 megatons in the first quarter of 2026 despite a surge in smaller fireballs attributed to seasonal factors around the vernal equinox. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with historical flux models estimating such ~30-meter asteroid airbursts once per century. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare, sun-blinded undetected impactor, though ongoing CNEOS fireball monitoring and global infrasound networks minimize this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$101,898Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risk for 2026, with the highest-probability tracked objects like 2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ carrying cumulative odds below 0.004% and Torino Scale ratings of zero, reflecting comprehensive NEO surveys that detect nearly all threats capable of megaton-scale energy release. No confirmed bolides have exceeded 0.00025 megatons in the first quarter of 2026 despite a surge in smaller fireballs attributed to seasonal factors around the vernal equinox. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with historical flux models estimating such ~30-meter asteroid airbursts once per century. Realistic shifts could arise from a rare, sun-blinded undetected impactor, though ongoing CNEOS fireball monitoring and global infrasound networks minimize this uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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