No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or ESA monitoring systems pose an impact risk capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026. Current orbital data and Sentry system assessments confirm only tiny asteroids with negligible collision probabilities, far below the size needed for that energy release. Historical CNEOS fireball records show such bolides occur irregularly, averaging roughly once per year globally yet often undetected until atmospheric entry, with none confirmed through the first nine months of 2026. Traders assign high probability to “No” because the absence of catalogued threats and the remaining calendar window align with the low end of annual frequency estimates, though fresh model runs or unexpected small-object detections could still shift odds before year-end resolution via JPL bolide data.