**No** leads at 79% because no bolide with 5 kt TNT-equivalent impact energy has been recorded in the first nine-plus months of 2026, and NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring plus ESA risk lists show no known near-Earth objects on trajectories that could deliver that energy by year-end. Historical CNEOS fireball data indicate such events occur roughly once every few years on average, placing any single calendar year well below even odds. Ongoing surveys continue to detect only small objects that burn up at far lower energies, while recent meteor-shower activity (Taurids, Orionids) is not forecast to produce airbursts meeting the threshold. With roughly ten weeks remaining and continuous satellite and ground-sensor coverage, traders see limited scope for an undetected object to alter the outcome before December 31.