No known near-Earth objects currently pose a risk of a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of "No" at 64.5%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show all tracked asteroids, including recent discoveries like 2026 JH2 and 2026 KW, will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Small bolides continue to be detected at higher-than-average rates this year, yet none approach the 5kt energy threshold, consistent with historical frequencies where such events occur roughly once per decade. Refined orbital data from James Webb Space Telescope observations have further reduced any residual uncertainty for objects like 2024 YR4, which targets 2032 at most. Upcoming survey updates and model runs through mid-year will provide the next key data points for traders assessing undetected smaller impactors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$301,975 Vol.
$301,975 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$301,975 Vol.
$301,975 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects currently pose a risk of a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of "No" at 64.5%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show all tracked asteroids, including recent discoveries like 2026 JH2 and 2026 KW, will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Small bolides continue to be detected at higher-than-average rates this year, yet none approach the 5kt energy threshold, consistent with historical frequencies where such events occur roughly once per decade. Refined orbital data from James Webb Space Telescope observations have further reduced any residual uncertainty for objects like 2024 YR4, which targets 2032 at most. Upcoming survey updates and model runs through mid-year will provide the next key data points for traders assessing undetected smaller impactors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$301,975Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects currently pose a risk of a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of "No" at 64.5%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show all tracked asteroids, including recent discoveries like 2026 JH2 and 2026 KW, will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Small bolides continue to be detected at higher-than-average rates this year, yet none approach the 5kt energy threshold, consistent with historical frequencies where such events occur roughly once per decade. Refined orbital data from James Webb Space Telescope observations have further reduced any residual uncertainty for objects like 2024 YR4, which targets 2032 at most. Upcoming survey updates and model runs through mid-year will provide the next key data points for traders assessing undetected smaller impactors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$301,975Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects currently pose a risk of a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of "No" at 64.5%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show all tracked asteroids, including recent discoveries like 2026 JH2 and 2026 KW, will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Small bolides continue to be detected at higher-than-average rates this year, yet none approach the 5kt energy threshold, consistent with historical frequencies where such events occur roughly once per decade. Refined orbital data from James Webb Space Telescope observations have further reduced any residual uncertainty for objects like 2024 YR4, which targets 2032 at most. Upcoming survey updates and model runs through mid-year will provide the next key data points for traders assessing undetected smaller impactors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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