Trader consensus on no 5-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA and ESA surveys confirming no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy. Meteoroids in the 5–10 meter range, which produce roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry, occur only once every several decades on average. Although Q1 2026 recorded an elevated number of bright fireballs, verified events stayed well below the threshold, including a March 17 daytime fireball from a roughly 2-meter object. With more than five months elapsed and no forecasted impacts through year-end, the 61.5% market-implied probability for “No” tracks the low baseline rate and absence of emerging threats.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$301,394 Vol.
$301,394 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$301,394 Vol.
$301,394 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on no 5-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA and ESA surveys confirming no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy. Meteoroids in the 5–10 meter range, which produce roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry, occur only once every several decades on average. Although Q1 2026 recorded an elevated number of bright fireballs, verified events stayed well below the threshold, including a March 17 daytime fireball from a roughly 2-meter object. With more than five months elapsed and no forecasted impacts through year-end, the 61.5% market-implied probability for “No” tracks the low baseline rate and absence of emerging threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$301,394Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on no 5-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA and ESA surveys confirming no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy. Meteoroids in the 5–10 meter range, which produce roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry, occur only once every several decades on average. Although Q1 2026 recorded an elevated number of bright fireballs, verified events stayed well below the threshold, including a March 17 daytime fireball from a roughly 2-meter object. With more than five months elapsed and no forecasted impacts through year-end, the 61.5% market-implied probability for “No” tracks the low baseline rate and absence of emerging threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$301,394Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on no 5-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA and ESA surveys confirming no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy. Meteoroids in the 5–10 meter range, which produce roughly 5 kilotons upon atmospheric entry, occur only once every several decades on average. Although Q1 2026 recorded an elevated number of bright fireballs, verified events stayed well below the threshold, including a March 17 daytime fireball from a roughly 2-meter object. With more than five months elapsed and no forecasted impacts through year-end, the 61.5% market-implied probability for “No” tracks the low baseline rate and absence of emerging threats.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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