Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for delivering 2026's largest IPO by market cap, propelled by Elon Musk's December confirmation of mid-year listing plans targeting a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and the transformative February acquisition of xAI, which integrates advanced AI compute like the Colossus data center and joint TERAFAB project into space operations including Starlink and Starship. Bloomberg reports from March 25 signal an imminent confidential S-1 filing, potentially enabling a June debut that could eclipse all prior IPOs. xAI's lingering 25.5% reflects pre-merger AI hype, now absorbed, while OpenAI's 4% and Anthropic's 3.8% stem from vaguer Q4 timelines despite $700 billion-plus valuations; upcoming regulatory filings and earnings could shift dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Discord <1%
$1,613,351 Vol.
$1,613,351 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Discord
1%
Waymo
1%
Kraken
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Discord <1%
$1,613,351 Vol.
$1,613,351 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$177,972 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$294,306 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$341,867 Vol.
4%
Discord
$67,161 Vol.
1%
Waymo
$43,744 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$371,822 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$83,804 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$37,018 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$66,753 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,513 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,802 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,590 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for delivering 2026's largest IPO by market cap, propelled by Elon Musk's December confirmation of mid-year listing plans targeting a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and the transformative February acquisition of xAI, which integrates advanced AI compute like the Colossus data center and joint TERAFAB project into space operations including Starlink and Starship. Bloomberg reports from March 25 signal an imminent confidential S-1 filing, potentially enabling a June debut that could eclipse all prior IPOs. xAI's lingering 25.5% reflects pre-merger AI hype, now absorbed, while OpenAI's 4% and Anthropic's 3.8% stem from vaguer Q4 timelines despite $700 billion-plus valuations; upcoming regulatory filings and earnings could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$1,613,351Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for delivering 2026's largest IPO by market cap, propelled by Elon Musk's December confirmation of mid-year listing plans targeting a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and the transformative February acquisition of xAI, which integrates advanced AI compute like the Colossus data center and joint TERAFAB project into space operations including Starlink and Starship. Bloomberg reports from March 25 signal an imminent confidential S-1 filing, potentially enabling a June debut that could eclipse all prior IPOs. xAI's lingering 25.5% reflects pre-merger AI hype, now absorbed, while OpenAI's 4% and Anthropic's 3.8% stem from vaguer Q4 timelines despite $700 billion-plus valuations; upcoming regulatory filings and earnings could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,613,351Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for delivering 2026's largest IPO by market cap, propelled by Elon Musk's December confirmation of mid-year listing plans targeting a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and the transformative February acquisition of xAI, which integrates advanced AI compute like the Colossus data center and joint TERAFAB project into space operations including Starlink and Starship. Bloomberg reports from March 25 signal an imminent confidential S-1 filing, potentially enabling a June debut that could eclipse all prior IPOs. xAI's lingering 25.5% reflects pre-merger AI hype, now absorbed, while OpenAI's 4% and Anthropic's 3.8% stem from vaguer Q4 timelines despite $700 billion-plus valuations; upcoming regulatory filings and earnings could shift dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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