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Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 31.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 27%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 19%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 10%

Polymarket

$15,370,758 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 31.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 27%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 19%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 10%

Polymarket

$15,370,758 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$2,685,173 Vol.

32%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$894,186 Vol.

27%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$820,852 Vol.

19%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$792,769 Vol.

10%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$807,285 Vol.

6%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$859,208 Vol.

3%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$1,873,163 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$793,052 Vol.

1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,011,041 Vol.

1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$837,488 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$1,264,758 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$1,114,353 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$1,617,430 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders' close split between zero (31.6%) and one (26.5%) 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 reflects market-implied odds of roughly 0.7 cuts from CME Fed funds futures, diverging from the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting an end-2026 funds rate of 3.4% amid persistent 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation and a 4.4% unemployment rate after February's 92,000 job loss. Sticky core PCE readings and spiking oil prices from geopolitical tensions have curbed easing expectations despite labor softening, fostering trader consensus for minimal policy accommodation. Key differentiators include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where hotter inflation could solidify no-cut pricing while further weakness might boost one-cut odds.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$15,370,758
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders' close split between zero (31.6%) and one (26.5%) 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 reflects market-implied odds of roughly 0.7 cuts from CME Fed funds futures, diverging from the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting an end-2026 funds rate of 3.4% amid persistent 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation and a 4.4% unemployment rate after February's 92,000 job loss. Sticky core PCE readings and spiking oil prices from geopolitical tensions have curbed easing expectations despite labor softening, fostering trader consensus for minimal policy accommodation. Key differentiators include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where hotter inflation could solidify no-cut pricing while further weakness might boost one-cut odds.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$15,370,758
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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