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Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 31.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 27%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 19%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 10%

Polymarket

$15,374,849 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 31.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 27%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 19%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 10%

Polymarket

$15,374,849 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$2,685,495 Vol.

32%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$894,186 Vol.

27%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$820,852 Vol.

19%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$792,769 Vol.

10%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$807,285 Vol.

6%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$859,316 Vol.

3%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$1,873,613 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$793,052 Vol.

1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,011,348 Vol.

1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$838,308 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$1,265,574 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$1,115,442 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$1,617,882 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin split for Fed rate cuts in 2026, with zero cuts (0 bps) at 31.6% implied probability edging out one cut (25 bps) at 26.5%, reflecting post-March FOMC caution amid resilient economic data and inflation risks. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18, projecting a median single 25 basis point cut for the year but upping core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% due to an oil shock from Iran tensions pushing gas toward $4/gallon. Robust labor markets (4.4% unemployment projected end-2026) and sticky inflation differentiate no-cut scenarios from modest easing, with April CPI data on April 10 and the next FOMC meeting as key swing factors potentially solidifying the hold consensus.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$15,374,849
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin split for Fed rate cuts in 2026, with zero cuts (0 bps) at 31.6% implied probability edging out one cut (25 bps) at 26.5%, reflecting post-March FOMC caution amid resilient economic data and inflation risks. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18, projecting a median single 25 basis point cut for the year but upping core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% due to an oil shock from Iran tensions pushing gas toward $4/gallon. Robust labor markets (4.4% unemployment projected end-2026) and sticky inflation differentiate no-cut scenarios from modest easing, with April CPI data on April 10 and the next FOMC meeting as key swing factors potentially solidifying the hold consensus.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$15,374,849
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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