Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability that zero Democratic Senate incumbents will lose their primaries in 2024, reflecting the strong incumbency advantage—incumbents win over 98% of primaries historically—and minimal competitive challenges to date. Recent primaries confirm this: Sherrod Brown won Ohio's March 19 contest decisively with 71%, Jon Ossoff advanced unopposed in Georgia on March 12, and Bob Casey faced no opponent in Pennsylvania's April 23 primary. Upcoming races, including Jon Tester's June 4 Montana primary (where he leads polls by wide margins) and Jacky Rosen's June 11 Nevada matchup, show incumbents as heavy favorites amid weak progressive or intra-party challengers. Absent late scandals or endorsements shifting dynamics, traders see low risk of any upsets, though Tammy Baldwin's August Wisconsin primary draws minor scrutiny.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert0 71%
1 20.0%
2 14.8%
3 4.1%
NEW
NEW
0
81%
1
10%
2
15%
3
4%
4
3%
>4
2%
0 71%
1 20.0%
2 14.8%
3 4.1%
NEW
NEW
0
$0 Vol.
81%
1
$0 Vol.
10%
2
$458 Vol.
15%
3
$0 Vol.
4%
4
$0 Vol.
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>4
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability that zero Democratic Senate incumbents will lose their primaries in 2024, reflecting the strong incumbency advantage—incumbents win over 98% of primaries historically—and minimal competitive challenges to date. Recent primaries confirm this: Sherrod Brown won Ohio's March 19 contest decisively with 71%, Jon Ossoff advanced unopposed in Georgia on March 12, and Bob Casey faced no opponent in Pennsylvania's April 23 primary. Upcoming races, including Jon Tester's June 4 Montana primary (where he leads polls by wide margins) and Jacky Rosen's June 11 Nevada matchup, show incumbents as heavy favorites amid weak progressive or intra-party challengers. Absent late scandals or endorsements shifting dynamics, traders see low risk of any upsets, though Tammy Baldwin's August Wisconsin primary draws minor scrutiny.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volumen
$458Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability that zero Democratic Senate incumbents will lose their primaries in 2024, reflecting the strong incumbency advantage—incumbents win over 98% of primaries historically—and minimal competitive challenges to date. Recent primaries confirm this: Sherrod Brown won Ohio's March 19 contest decisively with 71%, Jon Ossoff advanced unopposed in Georgia on March 12, and Bob Casey faced no opponent in Pennsylvania's April 23 primary. Upcoming races, including Jon Tester's June 4 Montana primary (where he leads polls by wide margins) and Jacky Rosen's June 11 Nevada matchup, show incumbents as heavy favorites amid weak progressive or intra-party challengers. Absent late scandals or endorsements shifting dynamics, traders see low risk of any upsets, though Tammy Baldwin's August Wisconsin primary draws minor scrutiny.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$458Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability that zero Democratic Senate incumbents will lose their primaries in 2024, reflecting the strong incumbency advantage—incumbents win over 98% of primaries historically—and minimal competitive challenges to date. Recent primaries confirm this: Sherrod Brown won Ohio's March 19 contest decisively with 71%, Jon Ossoff advanced unopposed in Georgia on March 12, and Bob Casey faced no opponent in Pennsylvania's April 23 primary. Upcoming races, including Jon Tester's June 4 Montana primary (where he leads polls by wide margins) and Jacky Rosen's June 11 Nevada matchup, show incumbents as heavy favorites amid weak progressive or intra-party challengers. Absent late scandals or endorsements shifting dynamics, traders see low risk of any upsets, though Tammy Baldwin's August Wisconsin primary draws minor scrutiny.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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