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Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 59.1%

Siga Batista 4.2%

João de Deus Mendes 3.7%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 3.6%

Polymarket

$322,040 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 59.1%

Siga Batista 4.2%

João de Deus Mendes 3.7%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 3.6%

Polymarket

$322,040 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$53,192 Vol.

38%

Siga Batista

$22,314 Vol.

10%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,417 Vol.

4%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$88,311 Vol.

4%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,091 Vol.

3%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,005 Vol.

3%

José Mário Vaz

$21,861 Vol.

3%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,124 Vol.

3%

João Bernardo Vieira

$15,214 Vol.

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,165 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,027 Vol.

2%

Baciro Djá

$14,318 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader consensus in the rescheduled Guinea-Bissau presidential election due to his status as the main opposition challenger in the November 2025 vote, where he secured backing from the barred PAIGC party and its allies after both he and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló claimed victory amid disputed results. A military coup days later annulled the process, installed a transitional junta, and prompted a new election date of December 6, 2026, under a charter that bars the junta leader from running. Dias's positioning reflects ongoing opposition networks and regional diplomatic pressure for an inclusive transition, while the dispersed field below 10% underscores fragmented coalitions and uncertainty over candidate consolidations or voter priorities around stability ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$322,040
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader consensus in the rescheduled Guinea-Bissau presidential election due to his status as the main opposition challenger in the November 2025 vote, where he secured backing from the barred PAIGC party and its allies after both he and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló claimed victory amid disputed results. A military coup days later annulled the process, installed a transitional junta, and prompted a new election date of December 6, 2026, under a charter that bars the junta leader from running. Dias's positioning reflects ongoing opposition networks and regional diplomatic pressure for an inclusive transition, while the dispersed field below 10% underscores fragmented coalitions and uncertainty over candidate consolidations or voter priorities around stability ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$322,040
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 38%, gefolgt von „Siga Batista" mit 10%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 38¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $322K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 6, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 38%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Siga Batista" mit 10%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.