Polymarket traders assign a 42% implied probability to COMEX gold futures (GC) settling above $2,400 at June month-end, driven primarily by sticky inflation data offsetting Federal Reserve dovishness from the June 12 FOMC meeting, where markets now price a 62% chance of a September rate cut per CME FedWatch Tool. Spot gold trades near $2,360/oz amid a weakening U.S. dollar (DXY at 105.8) and sustained central bank purchases, though renewed Middle East tensions provide tailwind support. Key watch: June 28 PCE inflation release, with core PCE expected at 0.1% monthly; a hotter print could bolster gold as a hedge, while sub-2,400 GC levels by June 28 trigger No resolution. Historical June volatility averages 1.5%, underscoring positioning risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$24,071 Vol.
$8.000
2%
7.000 $
7%
6.500 $
5%
6.200 $
9%
$6.000
11%
$5.800
19%
5.600 $
24%
5.400 $
28%
5.200 $
40%
5.000 $
38%
4.800 $
47%
4.600 $
51%
$24,071 Vol.
$8.000
2%
7.000 $
7%
6.500 $
5%
6.200 $
9%
$6.000
11%
$5.800
19%
5.600 $
24%
5.400 $
28%
5.200 $
40%
5.000 $
38%
4.800 $
47%
4.600 $
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 42% implied probability to COMEX gold futures (GC) settling above $2,400 at June month-end, driven primarily by sticky inflation data offsetting Federal Reserve dovishness from the June 12 FOMC meeting, where markets now price a 62% chance of a September rate cut per CME FedWatch Tool. Spot gold trades near $2,360/oz amid a weakening U.S. dollar (DXY at 105.8) and sustained central bank purchases, though renewed Middle East tensions provide tailwind support. Key watch: June 28 PCE inflation release, with core PCE expected at 0.1% monthly; a hotter print could bolster gold as a hedge, while sub-2,400 GC levels by June 28 trigger No resolution. Historical June volatility averages 1.5%, underscoring positioning risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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