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Politik·Gov Shutdown

Funding lapse without government shutdown?

Market icon
Politik·Gov Shutdown

Funding lapse without government shutdown?

<1% Chance
Polymarket

$207,240 Vol.

<1% Chance
Polymarket

$207,240 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify.

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Volumen
$207,240
Enddatum
1. Okt. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify.

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Volumen
$207,240
Enddatum
1. Okt. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Funding lapse without government shutdown? " ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 0% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 0¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 0%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Funding lapse without government shutdown? " ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $207.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 23, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Funding lapse without government shutdown? " zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Funding lapse without government shutdown? " liegt bei 0% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 0% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Funding lapse without government shutdown? " definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.