Name: Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?
Start: 2025-12-29T23:07:22.866837Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on January 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for January 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

<620 Mrd.

620-630 Mrd.

630–640 Mrd.

640-650 Mrd.

650-660 Mrd.

660-670 Mrd.

670 Mrd.+

Elons Vermögen

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth for February 28, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for February 28, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Elon Musk Net Worth on Feb 28?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as of January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon). 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used. 


Elon Musk net worth on Jan 31?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth for March 31, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for March 31, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Elon Musk Net Worth on March 31?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth for April 30, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for April 30, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Elon Musk Net Worth on April 30?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth for May 31, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for May 31, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Elon Musk Net Worth on May 31?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth for June 30, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for May 31, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.


Elon Musk Net Worth on June 30?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth for July 31, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for July 31, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.


Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on September 30, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for September 30, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on October 31, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for October 31, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth for August 31, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be Bloomberg, specifically the datapoint for August 31, once the data is finalized. If https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/ is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Elon Musk Net Worth on August 31?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for December 31, 2025, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.


Elon Musk Net Worth on December 31? (Higher Strikes)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Elon Musk vor dem 30. Juni bei Joe Rogan auftreten?

Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:

- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.

If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Geht SpaceX durch die Bill Ackman "SPAR"-Firma an die Börse?

On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a "good idea." You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with a qualifying entity will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Elon Musk Ryanair kaufen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

Noch ein Elon-Baby bis zum 30. Juni?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

Nichts passiert jemals: Elon-Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Conrad Kramer OpenAI bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 verlassen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) unfollows Grimes (@Grimezsz) on X at any point between December 10, 2025, 2PM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If either of the ‘@elonmusk’ or ‘@Grimezsz’ X accounts are deleted or disabled this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk X account (@elonmusk), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Elon Musk Grimes bis zum 31. Januar entfolgen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Ari Weinstein OpenAI bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 verlassen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Sun meets with Elon Musk by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Justin Sun and Elon Musk are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird OpenAI bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 an die Börse gehen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Ubisoft vor 2027 übernommen?

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline.

This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party.

This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Elon Musk das vollständige Sorgerecht für das St. Clair-Kind erhalten?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Wird Tesla Optimus bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 veröffentlichen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI kündigt an, dass es AGI vor 2027 erreicht hat?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Arc bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einen Token herausbringen?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Wird Elon Musk / X (Twitter) TikTok erwerben?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aztec officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Aztec (https://aztec.network/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Wird Aztec bis zum 31. März 2026 einen Token herausbringen?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Tesla say "Robotaxi" during earnings call?

is market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Pinterest will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Pinterest will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Pinterest or OpenAi, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird OpenAI Pinterest im Jahr 2026 übernehmen?

Donald Trump’s Social Media and Cryptocurrency company Trump Media and Technology Group and the fusion power company TAE Technologies announced they had agreed to a merger deal on December 18th, signaling a shift of focus for the Trump-owned firm. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/business/trump-media-tae-technologies-fusion-power-deal.html

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the merger between Trump Media and Technology Group and TAE Technologies is completed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The merger will be considered completed once it has become legally effective and the two companies are now a single entity or they exist under a single entity as one corporate group, as evidenced by official company announcements and/or regulatory filings (e.g. the filing of an 8-K form to the SEC that announces the closure of the deal). Shareholder approval, receipt of regulatory approvals, regulatory filings which do not announce the closure of the deal, or other intermediate steps towards the closing of a deal will not alone be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.

If the merger agreement is officially terminated or the deal has been abandoned according to official company communications, this market will resolve to “No”.

Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Trump Media and Technology Group, TAE Technologies, or a combined successor entity, supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.

Trump Media x TAE Technologies Fusion bis zum 31. März abgeschlossen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

GPT-Anzeigen bis zum 31. März?

Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Wird Axiom bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einen Token herausgeben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1B+ Börsengang vor 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Workhorse vor 2027 Insolvenz anmelden?

Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if prjx.com officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from prjx.com, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Wird prjx bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einen Token herausbringen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):

1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.

2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.

3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.

If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.

Additional notes:

If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.

A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.

A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.

Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.

Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.

Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.

This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.

Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.

Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.

Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.

Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.

If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Elon Musk seinen Fall gegen Sam Altman gewinnen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Wird MetaMask bis zum 30. September 2026 einen Token herausgeben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Variational bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einen Token herausbringen?

Bryan Johnson recently made public his relationship with co-founder Kate Tolo (https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1995953490930401334). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bryan Johnson proposes to Kate Tolo by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is definitively determined that Bryan Johnson and Kate Tolo have ended their romantic relationship within the stated timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be photo or video of the proposal, or official statements of Bryan Johnson, Kate Tolo, or their legal representatives, otherwise a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Wird Bryan Johnson seinem Mitgründer vor 2027 einen Heiratsantrag machen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Phantom officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Phantom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Phantom bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einen Token herausbringen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rückgang der KI-Branche bis zum 31. Dezember 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

SpaceX-Börsengang schließt mit einer Marktkapitalisierung über 1 Billion Dollar?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Nansen bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einen Token herausbringen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.

A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). 

Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.

The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

<620 Mrd.
$2,384 Umsatz
5%

620-630 Mrd.
$1,154 Umsatz
2%

630–640 Mrd.
$909 Umsatz
2%

640-650 Mrd.
$1,238 Umsatz
4%

650-660 Mrd.
$1,124 Umsatz
1%

660-670 Mrd.
$1,264 Umsatz
8%

670 Mrd.+
$6,656 Umsatz
85%

Marktkontext

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

Regeln

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

Marktkontext

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

Über

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

<620 Mrd.$2,384 Umsatz5%Kaufen Ja7.9¢Kaufen Nein98.7¢

620-630 Mrd.$1,154 Umsatz2%Kaufen Ja3.0¢Kaufen Nein99.6¢

630–640 Mrd.$909 Umsatz2%Kaufen Ja2.0¢Kaufen Nein99.0¢

640-650 Mrd.$1,238 Umsatz4%Kaufen Ja7.7¢Kaufen Nein99.8¢

650-660 Mrd.$1,124 Umsatz1%Kaufen Ja2.2¢Kaufen Nein99.7¢

660-670 Mrd.$1,264 Umsatz8%Kaufen Ja9.7¢Kaufen Nein94.0¢

670 Mrd.+$6,656 Umsatz85%Kaufen Ja85.6¢Kaufen Nein15.1¢

Marktkontext

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

Regeln

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

Marktkontext

Elon Musks Vermögen am 31. Januar?

Über

<620 Mrd.
$2,384 Umsatz
5%

620-630 Mrd.
$1,154 Umsatz
2%

630–640 Mrd.
$909 Umsatz
2%

640-650 Mrd.
$1,238 Umsatz
4%

650-660 Mrd.
$1,124 Umsatz
1%

660-670 Mrd.
$1,264 Umsatz
8%

670 Mrd.+
$6,656 Umsatz
85%