Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a record Elo score exceeding 1500, bolstered by superior agentic reasoning and coding benchmarks from its mid-April release. This edge stems from consistent outperformance in recent battles, outpacing rivals in enterprise tasks and multimodal capabilities. Google trails at 21.5%, fueled by anticipation for Gemini 3.5 or newer variants at Google I/O on May 19-20, where multimodal and reasoning upgrades could challenge the lead. OpenAI and others languish below 1% amid stagnant leaderboard progress and no confirmed near-term releases, though last-minute model drops remain a wildcard in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 78%
Google 22%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
$6,892,964 Vol.
$6,892,964 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
78%
22%
OpenAI
1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 78%
Google 22%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
$6,892,964 Vol.
$6,892,964 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
$557,308 Vol.
78%
$475,775 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$658,962 Vol.
1%
xAI
$501,801 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$493,702 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$486,205 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$366,956 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$472,572 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$465,836 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$444,354 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$463,240 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$395,133 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$388,969 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,576 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$410,851 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a record Elo score exceeding 1500, bolstered by superior agentic reasoning and coding benchmarks from its mid-April release. This edge stems from consistent outperformance in recent battles, outpacing rivals in enterprise tasks and multimodal capabilities. Google trails at 21.5%, fueled by anticipation for Gemini 3.5 or newer variants at Google I/O on May 19-20, where multimodal and reasoning upgrades could challenge the lead. OpenAI and others languish below 1% amid stagnant leaderboard progress and no confirmed near-term releases, though last-minute model drops remain a wildcard in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$6,892,964Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a record Elo score exceeding 1500, bolstered by superior agentic reasoning and coding benchmarks from its mid-April release. This edge stems from consistent outperformance in recent battles, outpacing rivals in enterprise tasks and multimodal capabilities. Google trails at 21.5%, fueled by anticipation for Gemini 3.5 or newer variants at Google I/O on May 19-20, where multimodal and reasoning upgrades could challenge the lead. OpenAI and others languish below 1% amid stagnant leaderboard progress and no confirmed near-term releases, though last-minute model drops remain a wildcard in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$6,892,964Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 77.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a record Elo score exceeding 1500, bolstered by superior agentic reasoning and coding benchmarks from its mid-April release. This edge stems from consistent outperformance in recent battles, outpacing rivals in enterprise tasks and multimodal capabilities. Google trails at 21.5%, fueled by anticipation for Gemini 3.5 or newer variants at Google I/O on May 19-20, where multimodal and reasoning upgrades could challenge the lead. OpenAI and others languish below 1% amid stagnant leaderboard progress and no confirmed near-term releases, though last-minute model drops remain a wildcard in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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