Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 69% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, boasting a top Elo rating of 1549 in coding benchmarks as of early April 2026. Anthropic's rapid iteration—major releases like Opus and Sonnet 4.6 in February, plus explosive revenue growth surpassing OpenAI's $25 billion ARR—has solidified its frontier large language model lead amid converging top-model performance gaps of just 2.7%. Google's 21.5% odds reflect Gemma 4's April 2 launch, enhancing open-weight reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI (4.8%) and xAI (3.7%) lag without recent leaderboard breakthroughs. Watch for pre-deadline model drops or LMSYS updates as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 70%
Google 21%
OpenAI 4.8%
xAI 3.7%
$157,058 Vol.
$157,058 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
70%
21%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
4%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 70%
Google 21%
OpenAI 4.8%
xAI 3.7%
$157,058 Vol.
$157,058 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
$20,966 Vol.
70%
$13,762 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$11,681 Vol.
5%
xAI
$12,669 Vol.
4%
Meta
$9,875 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$11,717 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$11,178 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$7,763 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$8,743 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,007 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,875 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$7,767 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$7,853 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$8,613 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$7,839 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 69% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, boasting a top Elo rating of 1549 in coding benchmarks as of early April 2026. Anthropic's rapid iteration—major releases like Opus and Sonnet 4.6 in February, plus explosive revenue growth surpassing OpenAI's $25 billion ARR—has solidified its frontier large language model lead amid converging top-model performance gaps of just 2.7%. Google's 21.5% odds reflect Gemma 4's April 2 launch, enhancing open-weight reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI (4.8%) and xAI (3.7%) lag without recent leaderboard breakthroughs. Watch for pre-deadline model drops or LMSYS updates as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$157,058Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 69% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, boasting a top Elo rating of 1549 in coding benchmarks as of early April 2026. Anthropic's rapid iteration—major releases like Opus and Sonnet 4.6 in February, plus explosive revenue growth surpassing OpenAI's $25 billion ARR—has solidified its frontier large language model lead amid converging top-model performance gaps of just 2.7%. Google's 21.5% odds reflect Gemma 4's April 2 launch, enhancing open-weight reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI (4.8%) and xAI (3.7%) lag without recent leaderboard breakthroughs. Watch for pre-deadline model drops or LMSYS updates as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$157,058Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 69% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, boasting a top Elo rating of 1549 in coding benchmarks as of early April 2026. Anthropic's rapid iteration—major releases like Opus and Sonnet 4.6 in February, plus explosive revenue growth surpassing OpenAI's $25 billion ARR—has solidified its frontier large language model lead amid converging top-model performance gaps of just 2.7%. Google's 21.5% odds reflect Gemma 4's April 2 launch, enhancing open-weight reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI (4.8%) and xAI (3.7%) lag without recent leaderboard breakthroughs. Watch for pre-deadline model drops or LMSYS updates as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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