Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking model holds the top position on Arena.ai's Text leaderboard under Style Control On—prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair—with an Elo score of 1503, driving 81.5% market-implied odds to retain #1 by May 31. Released April 16, this frontier large language model surged ahead of rivals, dominating recent domain-specific leaderboards unveiled May 8 across coding, design, and simulations, reflecting superior agentic capabilities and benchmark performance. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lags at fourth (1492 Elo), backing 17.5% probability as the primary challenger absent new releases. Other labs trail below 2%, lacking competitive demos; traders eye potential late-May announcements as key catalysts amid prediction market wisdom of crowds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 82%
Google 18%
OpenAI 1.3%
xAI <1%
$359,754 Vol.
$359,754 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
82%
18%
OpenAI
1%
xAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 82%
Google 18%
OpenAI 1.3%
xAI <1%
$359,754 Vol.
$359,754 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
$34,412 Vol.
82%
$26,190 Vol.
18%
OpenAI
$22,019 Vol.
1%
xAI
$21,983 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$23,718 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$32,396 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$27,004 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$23,792 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$33,463 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$19,646 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$22,747 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$14,814 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$17,627 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$21,694 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$18,254 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking model holds the top position on Arena.ai's Text leaderboard under Style Control On—prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair—with an Elo score of 1503, driving 81.5% market-implied odds to retain #1 by May 31. Released April 16, this frontier large language model surged ahead of rivals, dominating recent domain-specific leaderboards unveiled May 8 across coding, design, and simulations, reflecting superior agentic capabilities and benchmark performance. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lags at fourth (1492 Elo), backing 17.5% probability as the primary challenger absent new releases. Other labs trail below 2%, lacking competitive demos; traders eye potential late-May announcements as key catalysts amid prediction market wisdom of crowds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$359,754Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking model holds the top position on Arena.ai's Text leaderboard under Style Control On—prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair—with an Elo score of 1503, driving 81.5% market-implied odds to retain #1 by May 31. Released April 16, this frontier large language model surged ahead of rivals, dominating recent domain-specific leaderboards unveiled May 8 across coding, design, and simulations, reflecting superior agentic capabilities and benchmark performance. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lags at fourth (1492 Elo), backing 17.5% probability as the primary challenger absent new releases. Other labs trail below 2%, lacking competitive demos; traders eye potential late-May announcements as key catalysts amid prediction market wisdom of crowds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$359,754Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking model holds the top position on Arena.ai's Text leaderboard under Style Control On—prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair—with an Elo score of 1503, driving 81.5% market-implied odds to retain #1 by May 31. Released April 16, this frontier large language model surged ahead of rivals, dominating recent domain-specific leaderboards unveiled May 8 across coding, design, and simulations, reflecting superior agentic capabilities and benchmark performance. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lags at fourth (1492 Elo), backing 17.5% probability as the primary challenger absent new releases. Other labs trail below 2%, lacking competitive demos; traders eye potential late-May announcements as key catalysts amid prediction market wisdom of crowds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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