Liberal seat projections have dominated Canadian federal poll aggregators throughout early 2026, with 338Canada (March 22) showing Liberals at 210 seats versus Conservatives' 105, and The Writ (March 17) projecting Liberals at 218 seats against Conservatives' 91. Recent polls reinforce this trader consensus, including Nanos (March 20: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 33%) and Abacus (March 15: 11-point Liberal lead), amid Mark Carney's leadership surge boosting Liberal support to mid-40s nationally and in key regions like Ontario and Quebec. No 2026 poll has shown Conservatives projected ahead in seats, reflecting sustained momentum that prices a flip as unlikely despite potential for volatility ahead of a possible snap election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Liberal seat projections have dominated Canadian federal poll aggregators throughout early 2026, with 338Canada (March 22) showing Liberals at 210 seats versus Conservatives' 105, and The Writ (March 17) projecting Liberals at 218 seats against Conservatives' 91. Recent polls reinforce this trader consensus, including Nanos (March 20: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 33%) and Abacus (March 15: 11-point Liberal lead), amid Mark Carney's leadership surge boosting Liberal support to mid-40s nationally and in key regions like Ontario and Quebec. No 2026 poll has shown Conservatives projected ahead in seats, reflecting sustained momentum that prices a flip as unlikely despite potential for volatility ahead of a possible snap election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volumen
$1,362Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Liberal seat projections have dominated Canadian federal poll aggregators throughout early 2026, with 338Canada (March 22) showing Liberals at 210 seats versus Conservatives' 105, and The Writ (March 17) projecting Liberals at 218 seats against Conservatives' 91. Recent polls reinforce this trader consensus, including Nanos (March 20: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 33%) and Abacus (March 15: 11-point Liberal lead), amid Mark Carney's leadership surge boosting Liberal support to mid-40s nationally and in key regions like Ontario and Quebec. No 2026 poll has shown Conservatives projected ahead in seats, reflecting sustained momentum that prices a flip as unlikely despite potential for volatility ahead of a possible snap election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volumen
$1,362Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Liberal seat projections have dominated Canadian federal poll aggregators throughout early 2026, with 338Canada (March 22) showing Liberals at 210 seats versus Conservatives' 105, and The Writ (March 17) projecting Liberals at 218 seats against Conservatives' 91. Recent polls reinforce this trader consensus, including Nanos (March 20: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 33%) and Abacus (March 15: 11-point Liberal lead), amid Mark Carney's leadership surge boosting Liberal support to mid-40s nationally and in key regions like Ontario and Quebec. No 2026 poll has shown Conservatives projected ahead in seats, reflecting sustained momentum that prices a flip as unlikely despite potential for volatility ahead of a possible snap election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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