Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 50% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, ahead of AfD at 17% and SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 15-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads a CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from the party's 2023 victory that ended the prior SPD-Grüne-Linke government and marked its strongest Berlin result since 1999. Stable polls reflect fragmented opposition amid national CDU momentum from the recent Rhineland-Palatinate state election win, though no current coalition secures a majority, heightening post-election negotiation risks. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this multi-party contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLandtagssieger Berlin
Landtagssieger Berlin
CDU 50%
AfD 18.1%
Linke 13%
Grüne 10.2%
$1,798,265 Vol.
$1,798,265 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
50%
AfD
18%
Linke
13%
Grüne
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 50%
AfD 18.1%
Linke 13%
Grüne 10.2%
$1,798,265 Vol.
$1,798,265 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,012 Vol.
50%
AfD
$1,448,280 Vol.
18%
Linke
$8,150 Vol.
13%
Grüne
$23,073 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,769 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,534 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 50% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, ahead of AfD at 17% and SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 15-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads a CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from the party's 2023 victory that ended the prior SPD-Grüne-Linke government and marked its strongest Berlin result since 1999. Stable polls reflect fragmented opposition amid national CDU momentum from the recent Rhineland-Palatinate state election win, though no current coalition secures a majority, heightening post-election negotiation risks. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,798,265Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 50% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, ahead of AfD at 17% and SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 15-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads a CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from the party's 2023 victory that ended the prior SPD-Grüne-Linke government and marked its strongest Berlin result since 1999. Stable polls reflect fragmented opposition amid national CDU momentum from the recent Rhineland-Palatinate state election win, though no current coalition secures a majority, heightening post-election negotiation risks. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,798,265Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 50% implied probability to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, ahead of AfD at 17% and SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 15-16%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads a CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from the party's 2023 victory that ended the prior SPD-Grüne-Linke government and marked its strongest Berlin result since 1999. Stable polls reflect fragmented opposition amid national CDU momentum from the recent Rhineland-Palatinate state election win, though no current coalition secures a majority, heightening post-election negotiation risks. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this multi-party contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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