Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLandtagssieger Berlin
Landtagssieger Berlin
CDU 51%
Linke 13%
Grüne 11.8%
AfD 10.7%
$1,887,930 Vol.
$1,887,930 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
51%
Linke
13%
Grüne
12%
AfD
11%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 51%
Linke 13%
Grüne 11.8%
AfD 10.7%
$1,887,930 Vol.
$1,887,930 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,012 Vol.
51%
Linke
$8,150 Vol.
13%
Grüne
$23,086 Vol.
12%
AfD
$1,538,150 Vol.
11%
SPD
$281,769 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,565 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,887,930Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,887,930Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 50.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads around 22%—five to six points ahead of challengers AfD (17%), Die Linke (16%), SPD, and Grüne (both ~15-16%)—in the latest February surveys from INSA and Civey. This positioning stems from the CDU's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, amplified by the party's recent Landtagswahl victories in Rhineland-Pfalz (ending SPD's 35-year rule) and strong showing in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation limits upset risks, though Die Linke and Grüne trail closely enough for double-digit odds amid stable trends and no major March catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen