Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats as plurality winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in late February INSA and Infratest dimap surveys. This edge stems from incumbency advantages under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, amid opposition fragmentation where AfD trails at 17%, SPD/Grüne/Die Linke hover near 15-16%, and smaller parties like FDP, BSW, and FW poll below 5%. CDU's recent victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl has amplified national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, boosting expectations despite a competitive multiparty field and no majority projected for the incumbents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLandtagssieger Berlin
Landtagssieger Berlin
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.1%
Grüne 8.8%
$1,426,233 Vol.
$1,426,233 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Grüne
9%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.1%
Grüne 8.8%
$1,426,233 Vol.
$1,426,233 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,519 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$1,082,729 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,205 Vol.
9%
SPD
$280,685 Vol.
9%
BSW
$14,521 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,824 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats as plurality winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in late February INSA and Infratest dimap surveys. This edge stems from incumbency advantages under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, amid opposition fragmentation where AfD trails at 17%, SPD/Grüne/Die Linke hover near 15-16%, and smaller parties like FDP, BSW, and FW poll below 5%. CDU's recent victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl has amplified national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, boosting expectations despite a competitive multiparty field and no majority projected for the incumbents.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,426,233Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats as plurality winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in late February INSA and Infratest dimap surveys. This edge stems from incumbency advantages under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, amid opposition fragmentation where AfD trails at 17%, SPD/Grüne/Die Linke hover near 15-16%, and smaller parties like FDP, BSW, and FW poll below 5%. CDU's recent victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl has amplified national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, boosting expectations despite a competitive multiparty field and no majority projected for the incumbents.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,426,233Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats as plurality winner in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in late February INSA and Infratest dimap surveys. This edge stems from incumbency advantages under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the current CDU-SPD coalition, amid opposition fragmentation where AfD trails at 17%, SPD/Grüne/Die Linke hover near 15-16%, and smaller parties like FDP, BSW, and FW poll below 5%. CDU's recent victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl has amplified national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, boosting expectations despite a competitive multiparty field and no majority projected for the incumbents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen