Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 53% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's proportional representation state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its steady five-to-six-point lead in Sonntagsfrage polls over the past 30 days. Latest February surveys from INSA and Civey place CDU at 22-23%, ahead of AfD (16-17%) and Die Linke (15-17%), with SPD and Grüne clustered at 14-16%, while BSW, FDP, and FW languish below 5%. This reflects ongoing dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, which falls short of an absolute majority in projections, fragmenting opposition support and elevating Die Linke's competitive edge in urban polls despite Berlin Mayor Wegner's low personal approval ratings. No major catalysts have emerged in the last two weeks, maintaining stable trends ahead of campaign intensification.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLandtagssieger Berlin
Landtagssieger Berlin
CDU 53%
Linke 13%
AfD 12.1%
Grüne 10.9%
$1,615,686 Vol.
$1,615,686 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
53%
Linke
13%
AfD
12%
Grüne
11%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 53%
Linke 13%
AfD 12.1%
Grüne 10.9%
$1,615,686 Vol.
$1,615,686 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,729 Vol.
53%
Linke
$8,009 Vol.
13%
AfD
$1,273,561 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,436 Vol.
11%
SPD
$281,496 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,187 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,178 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,981 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 53% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's proportional representation state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its steady five-to-six-point lead in Sonntagsfrage polls over the past 30 days. Latest February surveys from INSA and Civey place CDU at 22-23%, ahead of AfD (16-17%) and Die Linke (15-17%), with SPD and Grüne clustered at 14-16%, while BSW, FDP, and FW languish below 5%. This reflects ongoing dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, which falls short of an absolute majority in projections, fragmenting opposition support and elevating Die Linke's competitive edge in urban polls despite Berlin Mayor Wegner's low personal approval ratings. No major catalysts have emerged in the last two weeks, maintaining stable trends ahead of campaign intensification.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,615,686Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 53% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's proportional representation state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its steady five-to-six-point lead in Sonntagsfrage polls over the past 30 days. Latest February surveys from INSA and Civey place CDU at 22-23%, ahead of AfD (16-17%) and Die Linke (15-17%), with SPD and Grüne clustered at 14-16%, while BSW, FDP, and FW languish below 5%. This reflects ongoing dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, which falls short of an absolute majority in projections, fragmenting opposition support and elevating Die Linke's competitive edge in urban polls despite Berlin Mayor Wegner's low personal approval ratings. No major catalysts have emerged in the last two weeks, maintaining stable trends ahead of campaign intensification.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,615,686Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns CDU a 53% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's proportional representation state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its steady five-to-six-point lead in Sonntagsfrage polls over the past 30 days. Latest February surveys from INSA and Civey place CDU at 22-23%, ahead of AfD (16-17%) and Die Linke (15-17%), with SPD and Grüne clustered at 14-16%, while BSW, FDP, and FW languish below 5%. This reflects ongoing dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, which falls short of an absolute majority in projections, fragmenting opposition support and elevating Die Linke's competitive edge in urban polls despite Berlin Mayor Wegner's low personal approval ratings. No major catalysts have emerged in the last two weeks, maintaining stable trends ahead of campaign intensification.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen