Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLandtagssieger Berlin
Landtagssieger Berlin
CDU 50%
AfD 17.2%
Linke 13%
Grüne 10.2%
$1,799,256 Vol.
$1,799,256 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
50%
AfD
17%
Linke
13%
Grüne
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 50%
AfD 17.2%
Linke 13%
Grüne 10.2%
$1,799,256 Vol.
$1,799,256 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,012 Vol.
50%
AfD
$1,450,429 Vol.
17%
Linke
$8,150 Vol.
13%
Grüne
$23,073 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,769 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,534 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,799,256Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,799,256Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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