Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Bank of Brazil's March 19-20 Copom meeting, propelled by the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 10.50% in early February amid cooling inflation—December IPCA rose just 0.56% monthly and 4.62% annually, hugging the 3%±1.5% target midpoint. Robust 2.9% GDP growth in 2023 and improving fiscal dynamics bolster expectations for continued easing to support recovery without overheating. This positioning could face reversal from upside inflation surprises in services or food, renewed global risk aversion weakening the real, or hawkish Copom rhetoric signaling pause.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of Brazil im März?
Entscheidung der Bank of Brazil im März?
Senkung 100.0%
Erhöhung <1%
Keine Änderung <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Erhöhung
Nein
Keine Änderung
Nein
Senkung
Ja
Senkung 100.0%
Erhöhung <1%
Keine Änderung <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Erhöhung
$0 Vol.
Nein
Keine Änderung
$0 Vol.
Nein
Senkung
$0 Vol.
Ja
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Bank of Brazil's March 19-20 Copom meeting, propelled by the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 10.50% in early February amid cooling inflation—December IPCA rose just 0.56% monthly and 4.62% annually, hugging the 3%±1.5% target midpoint. Robust 2.9% GDP growth in 2023 and improving fiscal dynamics bolster expectations for continued easing to support recovery without overheating. This positioning could face reversal from upside inflation surprises in services or food, renewed global risk aversion weakening the real, or hawkish Copom rhetoric signaling pause.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Mar 17, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Bank of Brazil's March 19-20 Copom meeting, propelled by the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 10.50% in early February amid cooling inflation—December IPCA rose just 0.56% monthly and 4.62% annually, hugging the 3%±1.5% target midpoint. Robust 2.9% GDP growth in 2023 and improving fiscal dynamics bolster expectations for continued easing to support recovery without overheating. This positioning could face reversal from upside inflation surprises in services or food, renewed global risk aversion weakening the real, or hawkish Copom rhetoric signaling pause.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Mar 17, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Bank of Brazil's March 19-20 Copom meeting, propelled by the central bank's recent 50 basis point cut to 10.50% in early February amid cooling inflation—December IPCA rose just 0.56% monthly and 4.62% annually, hugging the 3%±1.5% target midpoint. Robust 2.9% GDP growth in 2023 and improving fiscal dynamics bolster expectations for continued easing to support recovery without overheating. This positioning could face reversal from upside inflation surprises in services or food, renewed global risk aversion weakening the real, or hawkish Copom rhetoric signaling pause.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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