Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race with strong polling margins and a primary performance that placed her ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan, reflecting her appeal among independents and moderate voters in a state that uses ranked-choice voting. Recent surveys, including a New York Times/Siena poll showing her at 50 percent to Sullivan’s 43 percent, combined with race ratings shifting to lean Democratic, underpin trader consensus on her advantage. Sullivan maintains support from the Republican base and has appeared with national party figures, yet faces headwinds from Peltola’s fundraising edge and favorable second-choice simulations under ranked-choice rules. Minor candidates such as Dan J. Sullivan Jr. and others register negligible support, with the November 3 general election still weeks away and subject to further shifts from campaign events or turnout patterns.