Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Alaska Senate race due to her narrow first-round plurality in the November 3 election and analyses of ranked-choice voting data indicating she will gain sufficient second-choice votes from eliminated minor candidates to reach a majority. With roughly three-quarters of ballots counted, Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by under 700 votes at 48.2% to 47.9%, while the remaining candidates trail far behind; preliminary reviews show many supporters of the namesake independent candidate ranking Peltola ahead of Sullivan. Full tabulation, including outstanding mail and remote ballots, begins November 18 under Alaska’s ranked-choice system. Outcomes could shift only if late-counted ballots reverse the first-round margin dramatically or if second-choice patterns deviate sharply from available data.