Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race has driven her to the 59 percent market lead, fueled by record first-quarter fundraising exceeding $9 million and consistent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan by 5–7 points among likely voters. Traders weigh these factors against Alaska’s nonpartisan August primary and ranked-choice voting in the November general, which introduce additional uncertainty for both major candidates. Sullivan retains backing from his Republican base and a Trump endorsement, sustaining his 41.5 percent implied probability in a contest still viewed as competitive despite Peltola’s recent momentum. Minor candidates including a second Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot add limited but noted variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$335,738 Vol.
$335,738 Vol.

Mary Peltola
59%

Dan Sullivan
42%

Dustin Darden
<1%

Ann Diener
<1%

Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$335,738 Vol.
$335,738 Vol.

Mary Peltola
59%

Dan Sullivan
42%

Dustin Darden
<1%

Ann Diener
<1%

Richard Grayson
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race has driven her to the 59 percent market lead, fueled by record first-quarter fundraising exceeding $9 million and consistent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan by 5–7 points among likely voters. Traders weigh these factors against Alaska’s nonpartisan August primary and ranked-choice voting in the November general, which introduce additional uncertainty for both major candidates. Sullivan retains backing from his Republican base and a Trump endorsement, sustaining his 41.5 percent implied probability in a contest still viewed as competitive despite Peltola’s recent momentum. Minor candidates including a second Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot add limited but noted variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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