Name: Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?
Start: 2025-12-18T21:10:48.285582Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NVIDIA

Microsoft

Saudi Aramco

Alphabet

Amazon

Apple

Tesla

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2nd Largest company end of October?

This market will resolve to the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


2nd Largest company end of September?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2nd Largest company end of June?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2nd Largest company end of 2025?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2nd Largest company end of November?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende März?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2nd Largest company end of February?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.

Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” 

This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.

If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).

AWS-Dienst am 31. Januar gestört?

If the Bill Ackman Index performs better than the S&P 500 Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “Ackman”. If the S&P 500 Index performs better than the Bill Ackman Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “S&P”. 

The performance of each index will be the 1-month trailing percentage return of the index for the final trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for the Bill Ackman Index ("Ackman") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559452008356167680

Information from the "Performance" table for the Bill Ackman Index, specifically the 1-month trailing percentage return figures found under "1M", will be used to resolve this market, once information is finalized for the final day of the specified month.

If the Bill Ackman Index’s 1-month trailing percentage return figure for the last trading day of the specified month is not published by the time that the figure for the first trading day of the next month is published, this market will resolve based on the most recent 1-month trailing percentage return figure published by the specified resolution source for a day prior to the last trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for S&P 500 ("S&P") is: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

Information from the "Historical Prices" table for the S&P 500 will be used to resolve this market. The S&P 500’s 1-month trailing percentage return will be calculated as the percentage change between the S&P 500’s closing price on the final trading day of the specified month and its closing price on the same calendar day of the previous month. If the relevant day in the previous month was not a trading day, the most recent trading day before this day will be used. If the same calendar day does not exist in the previous month, the return will be calculated using the final trading day of the previous month. Note that all relevant figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If either of the relevant days lack a specified closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price for that day.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price or 1-month return figure published for each relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If both indices perform exactly the same over this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve 50-50.

Updates to historical prices or figures displayed by any of the indices subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodologies utilized by the specified indices as of the resolution time of this market, regardless of whether those methodologies are later updated.

Ackman vs. S&P - Januar

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 01.xyz total volume is equal to or greater than $5,000,000,000 at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be https://01.xyz/markets, using the “Total volume” value shown on the site.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the auction clearing price for the Zama public sale is greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the official raise page available at https://auction.zama.org/register

If the final auction clearing price cannot be verified by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the relevant information becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”

Zama-Auktionsabrechnungspreis über 0,03 $?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Nasdaq Stock Exchange (Nasdaq) extends its trading schedule to cover at least 22 hours per day, 5 days per week by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

5 days per week refers to any 5 24-hour periods which Nasdaq treats as trading days. This is not limited to the weekday hours of the Eastern Time Zone (e.g. a day starting on Sunday at 9PM ET and ending on Monday at 9PM ET will count, as long as at least 22 of the relevant 24 hours are open for trading).

A qualifying Nasdaq trading schedule must be active, operational, and publicly accessible for trading of Nasdaq-listed securities to qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The announcement of such a trading schedule within this market’s timeframe will not suffice on its own.

Technical errors (e.g. a circuit breaker), trading holidays, or any planned shortened days will not disqualify this market from resolving to “Yes,” provided Nasdaq has officially implemented a qualifying trading schedule.

Limited trading restrictions outside of regular market hours (i.e. lower liquidity or restricted order types) will not disqualify an extended trading schedule from resolving this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Nasdaq; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nasdaq-Rund-um-die-Uhr-Handel bis zum 30. Juni?

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Wird die Obergrenze des Zielkorridors für den Federal Funds Rate Ende 2026 bei 3,0 % liegen?

This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Alphabet
$465,791 Umsatz
96%

Apple
$350,486 Umsatz
3%

NVIDIA
$323,242 Umsatz
1%

Microsoft
$402,887 Umsatz
<1%

Saudi Aramco
$526,266 Umsatz
<1%

Amazon
$326,357 Umsatz
<1%

Tesla
$455,710 Umsatz
<1%

Marktkontext

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Regeln

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Marktkontext

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Über

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Alphabet$465,791 Umsatz96%Kaufen Ja96.4¢Kaufen Nein3.9¢

Apple$350,486 Umsatz3%Kaufen Ja2.9¢Kaufen Nein97.3¢

NVIDIA$323,242 Umsatz1%Kaufen Ja1.2¢Kaufen Nein98.9¢

Microsoft$402,887 Umsatz<1%Kaufen Ja0.2¢Kaufen Nein0.0¢

Saudi Aramco$526,266 Umsatz<1%Kaufen Ja0.1¢Kaufen Nein0.0¢

Amazon$326,357 Umsatz<1%Kaufen Ja0.1¢Kaufen Nein0.0¢

Tesla$455,710 Umsatz<1%Kaufen Ja0.1¢Kaufen Nein0.0¢

Marktkontext

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Regeln

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Marktkontext

Zweitgrößtes Unternehmen Ende Januar?

Über

Alphabet
$465,791 Umsatz
96%

Apple
$350,486 Umsatz
3%

NVIDIA
$323,242 Umsatz
1%

Microsoft
$402,887 Umsatz
<1%

Saudi Aramco
$526,266 Umsatz
<1%

Amazon
$326,357 Umsatz
<1%

Tesla
$455,710 Umsatz
<1%