Trader consensus on the 2026 Bolivia gubernatorial elections shows a tight race among opposition parties—LIBRE leading at 36%, AP at 33.5%, PDC and UNIDAD at 29.5%, and APB-Súmate at 28.5%—while MAS-IPSP lags at 9%, driven by the party's deep internal rift between President Luis Arce and Evo Morales, expelled amid corruption probes and factional violence. This fragmentation amplifies regional dynamics, with parties drawing strength in strongholds like Santa Cruz (Creemos/PDC influence) and Tarija (APB), amid economic woes including dollar shortages and droughts fueling anti-incumbent sentiment. Separation could arise from candidate announcements, opposition alliances, MAS reconciliation efforts, or spillover from the 2025 presidential vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGouverneurswahlen in Bolivien 2026: Parteisieger
Gouverneurswahlen in Bolivien 2026: Parteisieger
Libre – Freiheit und Demokratie (LIBRE) 36%
Bündnis Unidad (UNIDAD) 10%
Allianz Popular (AP) 9%
Christlich-Demokratische Partei (PDC) 9%

Libre – Freiheit und Demokratie (LIBRE)
36%

Bündnis Unidad (UNIDAD)
30%

Allianz Popular (AP)
34%

Christlich-Demokratische Partei (PDC)
30%

Bewegung zum Sozialismus (MAS-IPSP)
9%

Autonomie für Bolivien – Súmate (APB Súmate)
29%
Libre – Freiheit und Demokratie (LIBRE) 36%
Bündnis Unidad (UNIDAD) 10%
Allianz Popular (AP) 9%
Christlich-Demokratische Partei (PDC) 9%

Libre – Freiheit und Demokratie (LIBRE)
36%

Bündnis Unidad (UNIDAD)
30%

Allianz Popular (AP)
34%

Christlich-Demokratische Partei (PDC)
30%

Bewegung zum Sozialismus (MAS-IPSP)
9%

Autonomie für Bolivien – Súmate (APB Súmate)
29%
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 Bolivia gubernatorial elections shows a tight race among opposition parties—LIBRE leading at 36%, AP at 33.5%, PDC and UNIDAD at 29.5%, and APB-Súmate at 28.5%—while MAS-IPSP lags at 9%, driven by the party's deep internal rift between President Luis Arce and Evo Morales, expelled amid corruption probes and factional violence. This fragmentation amplifies regional dynamics, with parties drawing strength in strongholds like Santa Cruz (Creemos/PDC influence) and Tarija (APB), amid economic woes including dollar shortages and droughts fueling anti-incumbent sentiment. Separation could arise from candidate announcements, opposition alliances, MAS reconciliation efforts, or spillover from the 2025 presidential vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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