Dashboards

Elections

Macro

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Fed Rates

Trump

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

23% chance

Economy

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

28%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

14%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

56%
Péter Magyar
42%
Viktor Orbán
3%
István Kapitány
<1%
László Toroczkai

Geopolitics

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

41%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

18%

chance

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

23% chance

Economy

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

28%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

14%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

56%
Péter Magyar
42%
Viktor Orbán
3%
István Kapitány
<1%
László Toroczkai

Geopolitics

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

41%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

18%

chance