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Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

33% chance

Economy

ECB rate hike in 2026?

75%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

14%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

15%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

66%
Péter Magyar
34%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
István Kapitány
<1%
László Toroczkai

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

44%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro
6%
Renan Santos
4%
Fernando Haddad

Geopolitics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

13%

chance

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

37%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

24%

chance

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

33% chance

Economy

ECB rate hike in 2026?

75%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

14%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

15%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

66%
Péter Magyar
34%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
István Kapitány
<1%
László Toroczkai

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

44%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro
6%
Renan Santos
4%
Fernando Haddad

Geopolitics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

13%

chance

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

37%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

24%

chance