Dashboards

Elections

Primaries

Macro

Fed Rates

Trump

Midterms

Earnings

Sports

Oscars

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

35% chance

Economy

ECB rate hike in 2026?

85%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

17%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

20%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

64%
Péter Magyar
36%
Viktor Orbán
1%
László Toroczkai
<1%
István Kapitány

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

46%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
39%
Flávio Bolsonaro
7%
Renan Santos
4%
Fernando Haddad

Geopolitics

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

39%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

25%

chance

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

35% chance

Economy

ECB rate hike in 2026?

85%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

17%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

20%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

64%
Péter Magyar
36%
Viktor Orbán
1%
László Toroczkai
<1%
István Kapitány

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

46%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
39%
Flávio Bolsonaro
7%
Renan Santos
4%
Fernando Haddad

Geopolitics

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

39%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

25%

chance