DASHBOARDS

Elections
Macro
Sports
Fed Rates
Trump

Elections
Macro
Sports
Fed Rates
Trump

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

22% chance

Economy

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

31%

CHANCE

Fed rate hike in 2026?

12%

CHANCE

US bank failure by March 31?

28%

CHANCE

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

54%
Péter Magyar
47%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
Klára Dobrev
<1%
László Toroczkai

Jan

Portugal

Presidential

65%
António José Seguro (IND)
19%
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
10%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
5%
André Ventura (CH)

Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

12%

CHANCE

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

63%

CHANCE

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

19%

CHANCE

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

22% chance

Economy

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

31%

CHANCE

Fed rate hike in 2026?

12%

CHANCE

US bank failure by March 31?

28%

CHANCE

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

54%
Péter Magyar
47%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
Klára Dobrev
<1%
László Toroczkai

Jan

Portugal

Presidential

65%
António José Seguro (IND)
19%
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
10%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
5%
André Ventura (CH)

Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

12%

CHANCE

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

63%

CHANCE

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

19%

CHANCE