Dashboards

Trump won, now what?

Trump and crew

Promises & policies

What do the first few months in office look like?

Kevin Warsh
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
98%chance
0.3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
12%chance
0%
J.D. Vance
Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
1%chance
0.4%
<$100b
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
78%chance
1.8%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
32%chance
0%
<250k
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
2%chance
0.1%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
2%chance
0.9%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?
2%chance
5.5%
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
14%chance
0%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
16%chance
0.5%
June 30
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
16%chance
0.5%
Belarus
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
2%chance
0.1%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
7%chance
4.4%
December 31
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?
4%chance
0.9%
↑ 44%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
31%chance
0.5%
June 30
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?
47%chance
0%
Ken Paxton - TX-Sen
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
27%chance
3.4%
Kevin Warsh
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
98%chance
0.3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
12%chance
0%
J.D. Vance
Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
1%chance
0.4%
<$100b
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
78%chance
1.8%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
32%chance
0%
<250k
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
2%chance
0.1%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
2%chance
0.9%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?
2%chance
5.5%
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
14%chance
0%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
16%chance
0.5%
June 30
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
16%chance
0.5%
Belarus
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
2%chance
0.1%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
7%chance
4.4%
December 31
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?
4%chance
0.9%
↑ 44%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
31%chance
0.5%
June 30
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?
47%chance
0%
Ken Paxton - TX-Sen
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
27%chance
3.4%
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What else is in store for the Trump presidency?

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