Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by month's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's persistent high Elo rating—trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series amid over 8,000 recent battles confirming its edge in deep reasoning, complex coding, and low hallucinations. Released in February 2026, Claude's constitutional AI safeguards and benchmark dominance in March evaluations have solidified this gap over challengers like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4, with no major rival updates in the past week. Volatility remains possible via a surprise release from Google or xAI before the March 31 snapshot, or rapid shifts from new user votes, though traders see slim odds given the skin-in-the-game stakes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 97.9%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$527,308 交易量
$527,308 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
谷歌
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 97.9%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$527,308 交易量
$527,308 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,677 交易量
98%
xAI
$53,814 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$151,979 交易量
<1%
谷歌
$122,088 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$39,625 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
<1%
百度
$0 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$0 交易量
<1%
美团
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by month's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's persistent high Elo rating—trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series amid over 8,000 recent battles confirming its edge in deep reasoning, complex coding, and low hallucinations. Released in February 2026, Claude's constitutional AI safeguards and benchmark dominance in March evaluations have solidified this gap over challengers like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4, with no major rival updates in the past week. Volatility remains possible via a surprise release from Google or xAI before the March 31 snapshot, or rapid shifts from new user votes, though traders see slim odds given the skin-in-the-game stakes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$527,308结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by month's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's persistent high Elo rating—trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series amid over 8,000 recent battles confirming its edge in deep reasoning, complex coding, and low hallucinations. Released in February 2026, Claude's constitutional AI safeguards and benchmark dominance in March evaluations have solidified this gap over challengers like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4, with no major rival updates in the past week. Volatility remains possible via a surprise release from Google or xAI before the March 31 snapshot, or rapid shifts from new user votes, though traders see slim odds given the skin-in-the-game stakes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$527,308结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by month's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's persistent high Elo rating—trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series amid over 8,000 recent battles confirming its edge in deep reasoning, complex coding, and low hallucinations. Released in February 2026, Claude's constitutional AI safeguards and benchmark dominance in March evaluations have solidified this gap over challengers like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4, with no major rival updates in the past week. Volatility remains possible via a surprise release from Google or xAI before the March 31 snapshot, or rapid shifts from new user votes, though traders see slim odds given the skin-in-the-game stakes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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