Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 98.9% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants securing the top two positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of March 26—#1 claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1504 ELO and #2 claude-opus-4-6 at 1500—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) following its early March release and rapid user-voted ascent across text, code, and multimodal benchmarks. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and reasoning capabilities amid fierce competition from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta and OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations. With resolution imminent on March 31, a late leaderboard shakeup from surging votes on rival previews or surprise releases could challenge this positioning, though current momentum appears locked in.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 98.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$614,096 交易量
$614,096 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
99%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
谷歌
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 98.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$614,096 交易量
$614,096 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$97,847 交易量
99%
xAI
$54,531 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$152,824 交易量
<1%
谷歌
$122,161 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$39,664 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
<1%
百度
$82,944 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$0 交易量
<1%
美团
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 98.9% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants securing the top two positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of March 26—#1 claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1504 ELO and #2 claude-opus-4-6 at 1500—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) following its early March release and rapid user-voted ascent across text, code, and multimodal benchmarks. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and reasoning capabilities amid fierce competition from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta and OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations. With resolution imminent on March 31, a late leaderboard shakeup from surging votes on rival previews or surprise releases could challenge this positioning, though current momentum appears locked in.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$614,096结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 98.9% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants securing the top two positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of March 26—#1 claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1504 ELO and #2 claude-opus-4-6 at 1500—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) following its early March release and rapid user-voted ascent across text, code, and multimodal benchmarks. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and reasoning capabilities amid fierce competition from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta and OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations. With resolution imminent on March 31, a late leaderboard shakeup from surging votes on rival previews or surprise releases could challenge this positioning, though current momentum appears locked in.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$614,096结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 98.9% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants securing the top two positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of March 26—#1 claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1504 ELO and #2 claude-opus-4-6 at 1500—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) following its early March release and rapid user-voted ascent across text, code, and multimodal benchmarks. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and reasoning capabilities amid fierce competition from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta and OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations. With resolution imminent on March 31, a late leaderboard shakeup from surging votes on rival previews or surprise releases could challenge this positioning, though current momentum appears locked in.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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