Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 as the second-best AI model by month's end, with 97.4% implied probability, driven by its firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—following no major leaderboard shifts in the past week. Anthropic's February release of Claude 4.6 has dominated coding and reasoning benchmarks like llm-stats (2002 score), outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok-4.20 amid stable user voting data. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Claude's consistent excellence in large language model capabilities without recent challengers. Realistic threats include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI or xAI, or rapid Elo swings from intensified Arena battles, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 97.4%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$528,633 交易量
$528,633 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
谷歌
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 97.4%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$528,633 交易量
$528,633 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,832 交易量
97%
xAI
$54,107 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$152,800 交易量
<1%
谷歌
$122,141 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$39,629 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
<1%
百度
$0 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$0 交易量
<1%
美团
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 as the second-best AI model by month's end, with 97.4% implied probability, driven by its firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—following no major leaderboard shifts in the past week. Anthropic's February release of Claude 4.6 has dominated coding and reasoning benchmarks like llm-stats (2002 score), outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok-4.20 amid stable user voting data. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Claude's consistent excellence in large language model capabilities without recent challengers. Realistic threats include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI or xAI, or rapid Elo swings from intensified Arena battles, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$528,633结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 as the second-best AI model by month's end, with 97.4% implied probability, driven by its firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—following no major leaderboard shifts in the past week. Anthropic's February release of Claude 4.6 has dominated coding and reasoning benchmarks like llm-stats (2002 score), outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok-4.20 amid stable user voting data. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Claude's consistent excellence in large language model capabilities without recent challengers. Realistic threats include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI or xAI, or rapid Elo swings from intensified Arena battles, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$528,633结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 as the second-best AI model by month's end, with 97.4% implied probability, driven by its firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505—following no major leaderboard shifts in the past week. Anthropic's February release of Claude 4.6 has dominated coding and reasoning benchmarks like llm-stats (2002 score), outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok-4.20 amid stable user voting data. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Claude's consistent excellence in large language model capabilities without recent challengers. Realistic threats include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI or xAI, or rapid Elo swings from intensified Arena battles, though proximity to resolution limits upside for alternatives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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