Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.4% market-implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of March 2026, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in Elo ratings after consistently outperforming rivals in recent coding, reasoning, and creative benchmarks. This positioning stems from Claude's early March release, which solidified its lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4 via millions of crowdsourced battles, reflecting trader consensus on its superior human preference win rates. With the market resolving imminently on March 31, stability persists absent new submissions; realistic challenges include a last-minute Google or DeepSeek update surpassing it or leaderboard methodology tweaks, though high vote volumes make shifts unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
谷歌 <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,624 交易量
$525,624 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
谷歌
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
谷歌 <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,624 交易量
$525,624 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,625 交易量
98%
xAI
$53,073 交易量
1%
谷歌
$121,215 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$151,966 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$39,621 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
<1%
百度
$0 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$0 交易量
<1%
美团
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.4% market-implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of March 2026, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in Elo ratings after consistently outperforming rivals in recent coding, reasoning, and creative benchmarks. This positioning stems from Claude's early March release, which solidified its lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4 via millions of crowdsourced battles, reflecting trader consensus on its superior human preference win rates. With the market resolving imminently on March 31, stability persists absent new submissions; realistic challenges include a last-minute Google or DeepSeek update surpassing it or leaderboard methodology tweaks, though high vote volumes make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$525,624结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.4% market-implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of March 2026, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in Elo ratings after consistently outperforming rivals in recent coding, reasoning, and creative benchmarks. This positioning stems from Claude's early March release, which solidified its lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4 via millions of crowdsourced battles, reflecting trader consensus on its superior human preference win rates. With the market resolving imminently on March 31, stability persists absent new submissions; realistic challenges include a last-minute Google or DeepSeek update surpassing it or leaderboard methodology tweaks, though high vote volumes make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$525,624结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.4% market-implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of March 2026, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in Elo ratings after consistently outperforming rivals in recent coding, reasoning, and creative benchmarks. This positioning stems from Claude's early March release, which solidified its lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4 via millions of crowdsourced battles, reflecting trader consensus on its superior human preference win rates. With the market resolving imminently on March 31, stability persists absent new submissions; realistic challenges include a last-minute Google or DeepSeek update surpassing it or leaderboard methodology tweaks, though high vote volumes make shifts unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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