The United States has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, but President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon initiated preparations to resume testing amid intelligence on covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities. A senior State Department official confirmed on March 25, 2026, that the U.S. is readying Nevada's Tonopah Test Range for underground tests, fueling trader focus on NNSA and DOE timelines, which experts estimate at 24-36 months for full capability. Recent Nevada earthquake swarms sparked speculation, though no supercritical tests occurred; upcoming arms control talks with Russia and potential CTBT developments could influence escalation risks or delays.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$610,219 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年3月31日
<1%
2026年6月30日
51%
September 30, 2026
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
$610,219 交易量
2026年3月31日
$316,123 交易量
<1%
2026年6月30日
$0 交易量
51%
September 30, 2026
$0 交易量
50%
December 31, 2026
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, but President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon initiated preparations to resume testing amid intelligence on covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities. A senior State Department official confirmed on March 25, 2026, that the U.S. is readying Nevada's Tonopah Test Range for underground tests, fueling trader focus on NNSA and DOE timelines, which experts estimate at 24-36 months for full capability. Recent Nevada earthquake swarms sparked speculation, though no supercritical tests occurred; upcoming arms control talks with Russia and potential CTBT developments could influence escalation risks or delays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$610,219结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, but President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon initiated preparations to resume testing amid intelligence on covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities. A senior State Department official confirmed on March 25, 2026, that the U.S. is readying Nevada's Tonopah Test Range for underground tests, fueling trader focus on NNSA and DOE timelines, which experts estimate at 24-36 months for full capability. Recent Nevada earthquake swarms sparked speculation, though no supercritical tests occurred; upcoming arms control talks with Russia and potential CTBT developments could influence escalation risks or delays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$610,219结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, but President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon initiated preparations to resume testing amid intelligence on covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities. A senior State Department official confirmed on March 25, 2026, that the U.S. is readying Nevada's Tonopah Test Range for underground tests, fueling trader focus on NNSA and DOE timelines, which experts estimate at 24-36 months for full capability. Recent Nevada earthquake swarms sparked speculation, though no supercritical tests occurred; upcoming arms control talks with Russia and potential CTBT developments could influence escalation risks or delays.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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