The United States has maintained a nuclear test moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on the National Nuclear Security Administration's Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead certification through computer simulations and subcritical experiments. President Trump's October 2025 announcement to resume testing amid accusations of covert Chinese and Russian activities sparked congressional opposition, including bills to reinforce arms control and letters urging restraint. Recent March 2026 reports indicate State Department preparations for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, but technical infrastructure revival would require months to years, with no scheduled explosion confirmed. FY2026 NNSA budget boosts focus on modernization without explicit test funding, keeping trader consensus skeptical absent a firm executive order or congressional authorization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$610,219 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年3月31日
<1%
2026年6月30日
50%
September 30, 2026
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
$610,219 交易量
2026年3月31日
$316,123 交易量
<1%
2026年6月30日
$0 交易量
50%
September 30, 2026
$0 交易量
50%
December 31, 2026
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a nuclear test moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on the National Nuclear Security Administration's Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead certification through computer simulations and subcritical experiments. President Trump's October 2025 announcement to resume testing amid accusations of covert Chinese and Russian activities sparked congressional opposition, including bills to reinforce arms control and letters urging restraint. Recent March 2026 reports indicate State Department preparations for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, but technical infrastructure revival would require months to years, with no scheduled explosion confirmed. FY2026 NNSA budget boosts focus on modernization without explicit test funding, keeping trader consensus skeptical absent a firm executive order or congressional authorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$610,219结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a nuclear test moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on the National Nuclear Security Administration's Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead certification through computer simulations and subcritical experiments. President Trump's October 2025 announcement to resume testing amid accusations of covert Chinese and Russian activities sparked congressional opposition, including bills to reinforce arms control and letters urging restraint. Recent March 2026 reports indicate State Department preparations for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, but technical infrastructure revival would require months to years, with no scheduled explosion confirmed. FY2026 NNSA budget boosts focus on modernization without explicit test funding, keeping trader consensus skeptical absent a firm executive order or congressional authorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$610,219结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a nuclear test moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on the National Nuclear Security Administration's Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead certification through computer simulations and subcritical experiments. President Trump's October 2025 announcement to resume testing amid accusations of covert Chinese and Russian activities sparked congressional opposition, including bills to reinforce arms control and letters urging restraint. Recent March 2026 reports indicate State Department preparations for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, but technical infrastructure revival would require months to years, with no scheduled explosion confirmed. FY2026 NNSA budget boosts focus on modernization without explicit test funding, keeping trader consensus skeptical absent a firm executive order or congressional authorization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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