SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a mid-2026 IPO, reported this week, has driven its 89.5% implied probability as the largest by market cap, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise—dwarfing prior giants like Saudi Aramco—bolstered by its earlier merger with xAI, integrating AI for orbital computing and Starlink synergies. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects SpaceX's rocket dominance, revenue surge to $15 billion projected for 2025, and five Mars missions slated for 2026, positioning it far ahead. xAI's 25.5% odds stem from the merger's value accretion, while Anthropic, OpenAI, and others like Stripe linger below 5% absent comparable filings or scale amid a frothy but selective IPO pipeline; watch June listing catalysts and market volatility for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.3%
OpenAI 4.3%
Discord <1%
$1,641,825 交易量
$1,641,825 交易量
2026-12-31
SpaceX
90%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
4%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Waymo
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.3%
OpenAI 4.3%
Discord <1%
$1,641,825 交易量
$1,641,825 交易量
2026-12-31
SpaceX
$183,350 交易量
90%
Anthropic
$344,020 交易量
4%
OpenAI
$297,740 交易量
4%
Discord
$68,630 交易量
1%
Kraken
$375,390 交易量
1%
Stripe
$39,133 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$68,680 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$85,053 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$54,000 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$45,842 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$53,604 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$26,384 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a mid-2026 IPO, reported this week, has driven its 89.5% implied probability as the largest by market cap, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise—dwarfing prior giants like Saudi Aramco—bolstered by its earlier merger with xAI, integrating AI for orbital computing and Starlink synergies. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects SpaceX's rocket dominance, revenue surge to $15 billion projected for 2025, and five Mars missions slated for 2026, positioning it far ahead. xAI's 25.5% odds stem from the merger's value accretion, while Anthropic, OpenAI, and others like Stripe linger below 5% absent comparable filings or scale amid a frothy but selective IPO pipeline; watch June listing catalysts and market volatility for shifts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,641,825结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a mid-2026 IPO, reported this week, has driven its 89.5% implied probability as the largest by market cap, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise—dwarfing prior giants like Saudi Aramco—bolstered by its earlier merger with xAI, integrating AI for orbital computing and Starlink synergies. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects SpaceX's rocket dominance, revenue surge to $15 billion projected for 2025, and five Mars missions slated for 2026, positioning it far ahead. xAI's 25.5% odds stem from the merger's value accretion, while Anthropic, OpenAI, and others like Stripe linger below 5% absent comparable filings or scale amid a frothy but selective IPO pipeline; watch June listing catalysts and market volatility for shifts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,641,825结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a mid-2026 IPO, reported this week, has driven its 89.5% implied probability as the largest by market cap, targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise—dwarfing prior giants like Saudi Aramco—bolstered by its earlier merger with xAI, integrating AI for orbital computing and Starlink synergies. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects SpaceX's rocket dominance, revenue surge to $15 billion projected for 2025, and five Mars missions slated for 2026, positioning it far ahead. xAI's 25.5% odds stem from the merger's value accretion, while Anthropic, OpenAI, and others like Stripe linger below 5% absent comparable filings or scale amid a frothy but selective IPO pipeline; watch June listing catalysts and market volatility for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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