Trader sentiment favors 6°C or higher in Toronto on March 24 at 37% implied probability, driven by the latest Environment and Climate Change Canada forecast projecting highs of 5-7°C under a building high-pressure ridge ushering mild Atlantic air. Closely trailing are 4°C (28%) and 5°C (21.5%), reflecting ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF (cooler bias near 4°C) versus GFS (warmer at 6°C+). Differentiating factors include uncertainty in jet stream positioning and frontal timing, with historical late-March averages around 5°C but this winter's persistent mild anomalies tilting odds warmer. Watch afternoon model updates for shifts ahead of the event.