Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward a San Francisco high of 70-71°F at 23.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance and model ensembles like the GFS and ECMWF, which project peaks in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a building upper-level ridge over California. Recent developments include yesterday's 12z model runs showing enhanced downslope warming potential from northerly winds eroding the marine layer, though persistent coastal stratus and a cool Pacific sea surface temperature around 56°F introduce uncertainty differentiating the closely bunched 68-73°F outcomes. Historical late-March averages hover near 63°F, but this week's warmer anomaly stems from high-pressure dominance; new 00z forecasts tonight could refine peak heating trajectories ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 28?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 28?
70-71°F 29%
68-69°F 19%
74°F or higher 17%
64-65°F 12%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
24%
72-73°F
14%
74°F or higher
12%
70-71°F 29%
68-69°F 19%
74°F or higher 17%
64-65°F 12%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
24%
72-73°F
14%
74°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward a San Francisco high of 70-71°F at 23.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance and model ensembles like the GFS and ECMWF, which project peaks in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a building upper-level ridge over California. Recent developments include yesterday's 12z model runs showing enhanced downslope warming potential from northerly winds eroding the marine layer, though persistent coastal stratus and a cool Pacific sea surface temperature around 56°F introduce uncertainty differentiating the closely bunched 68-73°F outcomes. Historical late-March averages hover near 63°F, but this week's warmer anomaly stems from high-pressure dominance; new 00z forecasts tonight could refine peak heating trajectories ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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