Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 26 reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models diverging on the influence of the marine layer versus upper-level ridging. Cool outcomes at 55°F or below (25%) hinge on persistent onshore winds and coastal stratus clouds suppressing daytime heating, consistent with March climatology where averages hover around 62°F and fog often caps highs below 60°F. Conversely, 74°F or higher (25%) implies offshore Santa Ana-like winds clearing skies for adiabatic warming and subsidence, a rarer setup but precedented in anomalous heat events. Mid-range bids like 64-73°F (17% each) capture the consensus mean from recent 12Z runs, but traders await 00Z updates amid volatile Pacific jet positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 26?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 26?
72-73°F 17%
74°F or higher 17%
60-61°F 15%
58-59°F 13%
55°F or below
12%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
17%
74°F or higher
17%
72-73°F 17%
74°F or higher 17%
60-61°F 15%
58-59°F 13%
55°F or below
12%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
17%
74°F or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 26 reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models diverging on the influence of the marine layer versus upper-level ridging. Cool outcomes at 55°F or below (25%) hinge on persistent onshore winds and coastal stratus clouds suppressing daytime heating, consistent with March climatology where averages hover around 62°F and fog often caps highs below 60°F. Conversely, 74°F or higher (25%) implies offshore Santa Ana-like winds clearing skies for adiabatic warming and subsidence, a rarer setup but precedented in anomalous heat events. Mid-range bids like 64-73°F (17% each) capture the consensus mean from recent 12Z runs, but traders await 00Z updates amid volatile Pacific jet positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题