Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Miami high of 82-85°F on March 24, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast peaking near 83°F amid a dominant subtropical ridge fostering light southerly winds and minimal cloud cover. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread—ECMWF at 81-82°F versus GFS edging 84-85°F—reflecting uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and urban heat island amplification over Biscayne Bay's warm waters (currently 78°F). Historical March 24 averages hover at 80°F, but this year's persistent high-pressure pattern has nudged implied probabilities higher for the upper 80s (11.5%), differentiating from cooler 78-79°F odds (22%) tied to potential afternoon convection. Watch the 12Z model runs for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
82-83°F 33%
84-85°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
80-81°F 18%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 33%
84-85°F 25%
78-79°F 18%
80-81°F 18%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Miami high of 82-85°F on March 24, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast peaking near 83°F amid a dominant subtropical ridge fostering light southerly winds and minimal cloud cover. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread—ECMWF at 81-82°F versus GFS edging 84-85°F—reflecting uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and urban heat island amplification over Biscayne Bay's warm waters (currently 78°F). Historical March 24 averages hover at 80°F, but this year's persistent high-pressure pattern has nudged implied probabilities higher for the upper 80s (11.5%), differentiating from cooler 78-79°F odds (22%) tied to potential afternoon convection. Watch the 12Z model runs for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题